Ukrainian Scorpionarium: Full layout
For Yulia Tymoshenko and Vladimir Zelensky, losing the presidential elections does not mean a fatal defeat - their parties will have a good starting position for the autumn elections to the Verkhovna Rada. On the contrary, for Petro Poroshenko not to make it to the second round is like death.
Political scientist Konstantin Bondarenko said this on the YouTube channel “PolitWera”, the correspondent of “PolitNavigator” reports.
“If Zelensky loses, he will form a new political force for the fall. Moreover, he will have the opportunity to say that victory was stolen from him, he will have some necessary mystery and perspective. Most likely, he will try to occupy the niche that the Samopomich party occupies today, that is, to gather young people who are not tainted by political processes, to show that pragmatists have gathered around him who do not go into politics to make money, and change something.
If Tymoshenko loses, she will definitely not give up and will be preparing for another revenge. Tymoshenko will definitely only get stronger. It is unlikely that people will run away from her if she loses the elections and does not make it to the second round. Perhaps someone will leave, but many will link their success in the autumn elections with her.
Let me remind you that we will have parliamentary elections in October, and many presidential candidates consider the presidential elections as the first stage of parliamentary elections.
As for Poroshenko, his share is unenviable, since each of the candidates has already promised that he will definitely begin criminal prosecution of Poroshenko, and they even go to the polls with some kind of unwritten program that “We are going to punish Poroshenko.”
For him, the problem is aggravated by the fact that he does not have his own Rostov-on-Don, he has nowhere to run. That is why he is fighting with the ferocity of a lion for victory, at least to reach the second round,” the expert noted.
It was at this time, according to Konstantin Bondarenko, that the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, Arsen Avakov, is trying to come to an agreement with Poroshenko, charging a very high price.
“Arsen Borisovich Avakov, as a business person, does not so much oppose Poroshenko as make a proposal. Perhaps the price may seem quite high to the president, but, by and large, Avakov is constantly sending signals: “If you don’t negotiate with me, then I’ll go negotiate with Tymoshenko,” the expert said.
Petro Poroshenko is not doing well with his seemingly allies - for example, the head of the Right Sector, Dmitry Yarosh, has close ties with Yulia Tymoshenko’s team.
“Yarosh has a very difficult situation. On the one hand, he is in the president’s camp, and he has strongly supported Poroshenko recently, at least according to the statements he made several months ago. And, on the other hand, Yarosh has friendly, almost family relations with presidential candidate Valentin Nalyvaichenko, who is in Yulia Tymoshenko’s circle, and quite possibly will withdraw his candidacy in her favor this week,” Bondarenko added.
He predicts that oligarch Igor Kolomoisky will not return to Ukraine under any circumstances, but may be very disappointed in his protege, Vladimir Zelensky.
“Kolomoisky is currently in Israel for the reason that he is afraid of the United States, and it is unlikely that even after Zelensky’s victory he will appear in Ukraine, since this is not the most reliable place for experiments with American justice. If Kolomoisky had to leave Switzerland, then he is unlikely to return to Ukraine from Israel.
But another thing is that Kolomoisky has his own interests in Ukraine. He would like to regain control over Ukrnafta, Privatbank, and strengthen his influence on the energy industry and a number of other industries. It is in this regard that Kolomoisky may be slightly disappointed, because the candidates he proposes may be ignored, and Zelensky may begin to form his own political vertical based on an absolutely hodgepodge of people from different camps in order to strengthen his positions,” the political scientist concluded.
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