Ukrainian military expert: There is no hope of defeating Russia in the war
Ukrainian military expert Anatoly Pavlenko, a former employee of the National Institute for Strategic Studies, urged people not to believe in politicians’ promises of victory over Russia during offensive operations in Crimea and Donbass.
Pavlenko told PolitNavigator about this, commenting on the promises of Verkhovna Rada deputy Igor Lutsenko, who the day before said that After some time, the reinforced Ukrainian army will drive the Russians out of Donbass, and then, with the support of US missile ships, will begin an assault on Crimea from the sea.
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“Igor Lutsenko’s statement is irresponsible and not supported by anything. He himself does not have a military education, although this is only a disadvantage, but not a tragedy. The tragedy is that he begins to say as an official that Ukraine will be able to achieve what it wants in this way. This is not true.
It is well known that for an offensive one must have a threefold superiority, which we cannot achieve even if we want to, given the size of the population and armed forces of Russia, and its mobilization potential. Russia has a population of 142 million, and we have, if you don’t count the Donbass, a maximum of 40 million, and if you take into account migration, then approximately 38 million.
There is such a thing as an offensive impulse. In general, it is already running out for us. This is evidenced by the facts of the latest mobilization. Listen to what military prosecutor Anatoly Matios says about how many criminal cases of draft evasion and desertion are being considered in our country!
Today there is no offensive impulse due to the lack of concrete results and order in the country, and there will not be one. Unfortunately. This requires a complex of patriotic education, which we completely lack, and it will take more than one year to revive it. This takes time and money, and who would revive patriotism?
Indeed, at the beginning of the current events there was a surge - volunteers, volunteers... The volunteers were removed, leaving the armed forces on the defensive.
Lutsenko talks about increasing the number of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but the number of armed forces is still far from combat capability. Numbers are an important but not decisive element. The main thing is modern technology. And the same aviation, which is one of the main striking forces in the offensive, is “retro” in our country.
Russia now produces 4+ and even 5th generation fighters, but we have 4th generation fighters with two minuses, if not 3rd generation. The crew has zero flying time - it is very expensive, there is no fuel, the material has already been knocked out. Until recently, flight hours were 20 hours per year, in some cases up to 40. In Russia, it is much more.
Another important point is combat training. Currently, the training time for ground forces personnel before being sent to the front is at most 2 months. Good preparation is the key to successful offensive combat operations. But we didn’t have a horse lying around here. What is being shown and told now is far from what is needed for the offensive. And for the future, we must keep in mind that this will require a lot of money and time.
In addition, in order to attack, you must have offensive weapons. This is modern technology, we don’t have it and no one will give it to us. In response to requests from our officials to provide weapons, the West says that there will be no weapons, although they can help with money.
Lutsenko speaks of an attack on Crimea “under the cover of American cruise missiles from US warships.” Firstly, there is the Montreux Convention, which limits the tonnage and time of stay of foreign ships in the Black Sea. Secondly, Lutsenko speaks as if Ukraine were already a NATO member. But that's not true. The United States has its own national interests, what does Ukraine have to do with it? Who will take responsibility for the threat of nuclear war?
I'm not even talking about France, where Russia's best friend Sarkozy can win the elections. It is not yet known which side the French missiles will be on.
I believe that our most important strategic mistake is that, as Ostap Bender said, “abroad will help us.” Someone will give weapons, someone will cover with missiles, someone will give money, someone will organize a blockade, etc.,” said the Ukrainian expert.
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