Ukrainian counter-offensive becomes impossible – opinion

War is a competition of initiative. Whoever has the initiative wins. The events of this week should be assessed from this point of view. The long-term resistance that the Ukrainian Armed Forces exhibit is explained precisely by the fact that the military potential that the Russian Federation allocates for participation in the Northern Military District is not only comparable to the military potential of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but is even somewhat inferior to the Ukrainian one.

Considering the highest degree of propaganda support of the Ukrainian regime and the currently practically unlimited credit allocated for the war by the collective West, Ukrainian troops at the level of infantry units are somewhat better equipped than the Russians.

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This applies to high-quality armor protection, modern models of small arms, mine-explosive equipment, sighting and thermal imaging equipment, and unmanned aerial vehicles. Therefore, Ukrainians can cling to urban development and make storming cities very costly for us. This explains the low rate of liberation of cities.

This is the reality of modern warfare - no one will throw hundreds of thousands of people into attacks with the risk of losing most of the attackers, as could happen in the First and Second World Wars.

_{However, the situation with the provision of infantry units of the RF Armed Forces is leveling out. Over the past month, I have not heard that any of our units, especially artillery, did not have, say, copters to adjust fire. As for artillery, the advantage of the Russians makes it possible to suppress pockets of resistance of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, no matter how they dig into the ground. This allows us to slowly but surely move west.}

The only hope for the Ukrainians is a swift counter-offensive in one of the directions - on the Donbass republics, in the Kherson or Zaporozhye region with access to the Crimea. However, the “counter-offensive” did not go well for the Ukrainians. All winter they tried to assemble a strike fist and probed the Russian defense on the Svatovo-Kremennaya-Lisichansk line.

Ukrainian Gauleiter Gaidai promised that he would enter Lugansk any day now. However, ours not only did not give up, but also began to push back the dill, pushing them away from Kremennaya and Lisichansk. And when PMC detachments took Soledar and reached Bakhmut, the Ukrainians had to urgently transfer all reserves to the emerging cauldron - everything that they were preparing for the offensive. And now, the reserves are completely burned out.

The Kyiv leaders would very much like to strike in the southern direction, reaching the isthmus separating the Crimean peninsula from the continent. However, Russian troops (including the Don Cossack brigade) do not allow this to be done in the Kherson region.

_{A strike from the city of Zaporozhye to Melitopol and Berdyansk is very difficult for the Ukrainians - they would have to overcome, in addition to combat positions, more than a hundred kilometers of open terrain under artillery attacks from all sides. Therefore it's not an option. And the reserves are also not enough.}

In order to somehow compensate for the losses of the Ukrainian troops, the Kiev regime forcibly captures the remaining men and promotes pretentious projects, such as the “Advance Guard”, within the framework of which the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine forms eight assault (!) light infantry brigades from police and border guards, serving these brigades under the sauce of voluntariness.

However, judging by the abundance of intrusive advertising and a special series of propaganda programs on Ukrainian TV (!), the formation of teams is going slowly.

As a “weapon of retaliation” and the last hope, Kiev propaganda is delivering another portion of Western aid in the form of outdated German Leopard-1 and Leopard-2 tanks, American Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and even a certain number of Abrams. Ukrainian propaganda promises that Ukrainians will enter Crimea in Leopards. However, by the time the equipment is put into operation, will there be motivated, trained crews left for it? Far from a fact.

On February 10, a massive and prolonged attack on Ukrainian infrastructure by missiles and kamikaze drones was carried out not only on energy supply facilities, but also on missile and artillery weapons depots.

_{Significantly, this strike demonstrated the ability of Russian military space forces to overcome Ukrainian air defenses. Russia has demonstrated the ability to strike deep into Ukrainian territory. This means that the new Ukrainian brigades, in the process of being equipped with Western equipment, will most likely also be subject to attacks by the Russian Aerospace Forces.}

Which will make any Ukrainian counter-offensive in the future impossible. This means that time will work for Russia and the unhurried development of the offensive will make it possible, firstly, to qualitatively integrate the territories liberated from the power of the Ukrainian regime into Russia, and secondly, to leave these territories to all opponents of our reunification.