Ukrainian society is being prepared for default. But Yatsenyuk will drag on until the last minute, delaying his end
A plan is now being implemented to gradually prepare Ukrainian public opinion for the fact that a default must occur, it is inevitable and will take place. But when this will happen is difficult to say.
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This opinion was expressed in a comment to PolitNavigator by former Minister of Economy Viktor Suslov, commenting on the possible announcement of a default in Ukraine in July of this year.
“There is a version that with his statements about the possibility of default, the Minister of Finance is trying to put pressure on creditors. But I think that our Minister of Finance understands that our creditors are the largest financial companies in the world, the largest investment funds. These are people with extensive experience in lending to states; these are not people who can be so scared.
Therefore, I think that a plan is more likely to be implemented to gradually prepare Ukrainian public opinion for the fact that a default must occur, it is inevitable and will take place. But whether it will be on July 24, when the next payment will occur, or later is difficult to say,” says the expert.
Viktor Suslov suggested that as long as it is possible to pay the bills, the government will do everything to pay.
“This is explained by purely political motives - the default of Ukraine will be a default of the government and Yatsenyuk personally, evidence of the failure of the economic policy of this government. It must entail the resignation of this government. But in conditions when preparations are underway for local elections, such a failure of the prime minister, who is the leader of one of the main political forces, is extremely undesirable for this force, because this will be followed by the failure of this force in the elections. Therefore, most likely, the prime minister will do everything to delay the default, even if this means actively spending the remaining reserves of the National Bank,” Suslov suggested.
Whether a default occurs this summer or later depends on the position of the IMF, Suslov believes.
“Of course, it is possible that the IMF and our senior Western partners may consider that it is better for the Ukrainian government to declare a default now in order to make this process manageable. Summer, when the heating season is still far away, the Verkhovna Rada finishes its work and the socio-political situation is stable, is the best time for default. This is better than the fall, when it will lead to a sharp drop in living standards, rising unemployment, shutdown of enterprises, and this can sharply aggravate the situation in the country,” says the ex-minister.
In his opinion, the government will try to postpone the default. It is no longer possible to avoid it, says Viktor Suslov, but it can be pushed back.
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