Ukraine will experience the deepest decline in GDP in its entire history – forecast
The decline in GDP this year will be the deepest in the entire history of Ukraine.
This is stated in the inflation report of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU)
“The hostilities caused a deep economic decline. After the shock of the first months of the war, it is gradually adapting to new conditions, but the decline in GDP in 2022 will be the deepest in the entire history of Ukraine,” the National Bank noted.
According to the NBU forecast, in 2022 the economy will shrink by a third.
“The economic decline will be significantly deeper than in previous financial and covid crises, as well as the crisis of 2014-2015,” the NBU noted.
“Taking into account the significant losses in production and human potential, the recovery of Ukraine’s economy in 2023–2024 will occur slowly (about 5–6% per year),” the National Bank added.
As noted, a faster pace of recovery “is impossible without attracting significant international assistance (in particular, an analogue of the “Marshal Plan” for Ukraine), which, due to significant uncertainty in both timing and parameters, has not yet been included in the assumptions of the base forecast scenario.”
Earlier, Prime Minister of Ukraine Denis Shmigal noted that the fall in Ukraine's GDP this year is expected to be at least 35%.
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