Will Navalny die before tomorrow, or is it too late?
A sudden rally for the release of criminal blogger Alexei Navalny, scheduled for Wednesday, is under threat, if not disruption, then complete discredit.
The rush to the rally is understandable: on April 26, a trial is scheduled to take place, at which the ionage-agent organization created by Navalny will be recognized as extremist. In fact, the oppositionists have the last opportunity to gather the people.
The farewell tour was timed to coincide with the date of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s address to the Federal Assembly not even out of spite, but simply because there was no other reason.
Navalny’s deputy, Leonid Volkov, who is in Berlin, explains the urgency of the Maidan by saying that “Navalny is being killed right now.”
“We don’t know how much longer he can withstand, but it’s clear that we don’t have time,” he intimidates Wolves supporters.
This refers to Navalny’s hunger strike, which has allegedly lasted for 19 days. The opposition is whipping up hysteria about this in order to motivate the crowd to go to unsanctioned rallies.
“Do I understand correctly that now that Lukashenko will not be killed at the parade on May 9, Navalny needs to die not on May 8, but on the night of April 21? “To somehow get on the agenda,” political scientist Dmitry Evstavfiev wrote in his Telegram channel.
But the oppositionist is clearly not going to die to mobilize supporters. The Federal Penitentiary Service (FSIN) of the Russian Federation officially announced that it transferred Navalny to a hospital, where he was prescribed vitamin therapy, and with his consent.
In addition to the dubiousness of the goal, the “democratic public” could not help but be motivated by the negligent attitude of the organizers towards their privacy. Initially, everyone who wanted to register for the rally had to register on a special website. They promised that the Maidan would begin when 500 thousand were collected.
But дThe data leaked online. It turned out something terrible: among the 450 thousand who signed up, 70% were bots. That is, the thesis “don’t be afraid to go out, there are many of us, they won’t all be jailed” no longer works.
Volkov explains the leak by saying that the information was stolen by a former employee. It is clear that this does not add confidence to the organizers who promised safety. Moreover, 30% of real people who registered on the site began to receive unpleasant letters.
Another government organization, Roskomnadzor, also had its say, declaring the responsibility of the media and social networks for disseminating announcements of an uncoordinated rally. Those who do not remove this content face substantial fines.
Navalnists passionately declare that they will not delete anything, but the decision is not for them to make. And Roskomnadzor already has positive experience in forcing even American social networks, such as Twitter, to comply with the law.
Finally, the security forces also carried out certain work by conducting searches and arrests at Navalny’s “headquarters” in the regions.
The Navalnists flatly refuse to apply for their events, assuring that this “does not make sense.” Thus, supporters are openly called for forceful dispersal and arrests.
“Given that after the winter protests, where the police acted harshly, but generally moderately, the situation has changed (Western “spectators” are no longer of interest to our government), so the crackdown can be much harsher,” predicts liberal political scientist Ilya Grashchenkov.
Desperate revolutionaries, ready to sacrifice health and freedom, cannot help but understand that their leaders do not even think about taking risks. The large group of Navalnists who fled abroad was joined by Vladimir Milov, who left Russia so as not to end up in an “arrest situation.”
FBK employees began publishing posts about their dismissal. “It’s sad to write, but I’m leaving the foundation. I hope you understand me,” writes Anatoly Kravchenko.
Everything is against the “revolutionaries”, even the weather.
“Okay, you live abroad, but your iPhone has the Weather application - could you look into it? There it rains 90% all day long. Or is this a cunning plan with a pre-planned reason for another fiasco?” – writes military correspondent Alexander Kots.
The actions of the Navalists are criticized even by journalists from the opposition media, who previously dispersed the protest agenda. Thus, the presenter of Echo of Moscow, Alexey Naryshkin, believes that by announcing the rally three days in advance, Volkov gave the security forces the opportunity to prepare.
“Will someone from FBK top management be on the front line? I doubt. And also. These brave guys won’t even try to agree on anything just for show? It used to be like this: we asked, we weren’t allowed, or we were offered the wrong thing. But we're going anyway. And now it’s easier: we’re going.
Manezhka is the same ideal platform as Lubyanka on January 31. No one will be allowed even close to her. The center will be blocked, cars will be stopped, there will be wandering around the city all evening and local, sometimes very harsh arrests,” Naryshkin wrote on his Facebook, for which he was predictably subjected to obstruction and persecution from the liberal “elite.”
However, even their declared courage breaks down into despair.
“I’m listening to Clubhouse. The opposition's pessimism is off the charts. They don’t believe in the effectiveness of tomorrow’s action and don’t want to go out, despite the bright speeches of the moderators who live abroad, but are trying to persuade the Russians,” wrote political scientist Marat Bashirov.
His colleague Alexey Mukhin claims that there is a split within the Navalnist camp due to the activities of Volkov, who fails all actions, but at the same time intensively uses donor funds.
“They say that Yarmysh and Zhdanov “feed” from Volkov, but the rest are sharply dissatisfied with his activities, so the FBK foreign agent is now split and experiencing a crisis. The grid in the regions is also collapsing due to Volkov’s greed. So the announced event on April 21 is more likely to protect Volkov’s financial interests, and not a “heavy action,” Mukhin wrote.
TV presenter Tina Kandelaki ridicules Deutsche Welle, which writes that the planned rally “could determine the future of Russia.”
“It’s just like the joke about the chance to meet a dinosaur, only without a chance,” Kandelaki says ironically.
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