Lessons from Karabakh: Ukraine is destined for the role of Armenia
If Ukraine wants to use the experience of the Karabakh war to the conflict in Donbass, then it will most likely have to act in the role of Armenia, not Azerbaijan.
Kiev political scientist Alexander Semchenko told a PolitNavigator correspondent about this, commenting Statement by the head of the National Corps Andrei Biletsky that Azerbaijan is an example for Ukraine in how to fight with Russia.
“Biletsky sees Ukraine in the role of Azerbaijan, but in such a situation it would rather act in the role of Armenia. In addition, he downplays Russia's role in Azerbaijani politics. In fact, they always looked back to Russia. And the agreement reached does not imply the transfer of NKAO to Azerbaijan. She talks about the transfer of those Azerbaijani ethnic areas that the Armenians captured in addition to Nagorno-Karabakh. In essence, we are talking about differentiation along ethnic boundaries.
If we imagine that the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as Biletsky calls for it, will go on the attack, they will lose as a result of this attack, for example, Konstantinovka, Avdeevka and so on. Another agreement similar to the Minsk one will be signed. In fact, we have already gone through a similar scenario twice – in September 2014 and February 2015.
In addition, there is another fundamental difference with what is happening in the Donbass - a Russian peacekeeping contingent is being introduced into the NKAO. In general, Biletsky confuses the roles. If he wants to use the current Karabakh conflict as an example, then he needs to look from the side of Armenia, not Azerbaijan,” Semchenko said.
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