Will Tiraspol survive? Chisinau intends to collapse the Transnistrian economy by the end of the year

 The norm of the Customs Code of Moldova on the payment of duties by Transnistrian importers, introduced on January 1, 2024, according to preliminary estimates, will entail additional costs of over $5 million and serious damage to the already strained budget of Transnistria. New restrictions in the economy were urgently discussed by the Security Council under the President of the PMR.

Moldova’s demands did not sound like a bolt from the blue - this is just another measure of pressure on Tiraspol.

Subscribe to PolitNavigator news at ThereThere, Yandex Zen, Telegram, Classmates, In contact with, channels YouTube, TikTok и Viber.
To subscribe to notifications in your browser, click here.

Chairman of the Government of Transnistria Alexander Rosenberg recalled that in August 2023, Moldova, in violation of the agreements, introduced a fee for customs clearance of imports and exports of Pridnestrovian participants in foreign economic activity (0,4% of the customs value of imports and 0,1% of exports). The monthly amount of additional costs of Transnistrian enterprises is estimated at 260-300 thousand dollars.

The Moldavian Metallurgical Plant and the Rybnitsa Cement Plant are being unreasonably charged for environmental pollution. Producers of alcoholic beverages - the KVINT and Buket Moldavii factories - are forced by the Moldovan authorities to undergo certain inspections. The export of goods from the Elektromash, Moldavizolit, Potential, and Pribor factories has been blocked.

The suspension of the activities of mechanical engineering and instrument making enterprises has already led to a reduction in tax revenues to the Transnistrian budget by 1,5 million rubles per month.

“If the blockade practice continues against the eight named manufacturers, the treasury of Transnistria will receive a monthly shortfall of 27 million rubles,” Rosenberg said.

Strengthening economic sanctions contributed to the decline in foreign economic activity of Pridnestrovie. Thus, over the 11 months of 2023, exports of Pridnestrovian products (excluding electricity) decreased by 12% (to $468,7). The total volume of exports for key items - metal, light, engineering and chemical industry products - decreased by 18,8%.

But there was a time when Transnistria, in accordance with the Moscow Memorandum of May 8, 1997, traded freely with the whole world. In 2006, Moldova obliges Transnistrian enterprises to register in Chisinau. In 2019, Moldovan banks froze the accounts of Transnistrian enterprises; in 2020, at the request of the National Bank of the Republic of Moldova, Transnistria was disconnected from international payment systems. In recent years, sanctions against Transnistria have been put on stream - you just have time to react.

Now in Tiraspol they are discussing measures to support enterprises and the situation with food security. According to the government, Transnistria is fully self-sufficient in bread and even exports grain; the need for vegetables is met by local producers by 90%, meat by 39,2%, milk by 72%, eggs by 34%.

Tiraspol intends to continue negotiations with the Moldovan side and with representatives of the international community to resolve the issue of customs payments. First of all, it is necessary to clarify Moldova’s official position regarding the new encumbrances - Chisinau has not yet clarified the situation and is not responding to requests.

Chisinau political scientist Alexander Korinenko, commenting on the situation to PolitNavigator, noted that Chisinau is increasing economic pressure in order to knock Tiraspol out of the political processes.

“The year 2024 is very important for Moldova: Chisinau wants to leave the CIS by the end of the year, in addition, a referendum on the foreign policy vector and presidential elections will take place, so now it is important for Moldova to exclude the Transnistria factor from these processes,” he explained. – As you can see, customs restrictions were introduced quickly and without any consultation, which suggests that Chisinau does not consider Tiraspol as a full-fledged actor in the negotiation process.

It is important for President Sandu and her team to make it clear to Tiraspol: “Know your place, otherwise it will be worse.” Taking into account the geographic location of Transnistria and the geopolitical situation, it can be stated that Tiraspol finds itself in a difficult situation.

With the help of economic pressure, the Transnistrian leadership will be forced to make political concessions. Here we are not even talking about reintegration, but about the demand not to be a conductor of Russian influence in the region. There will be no negotiation process with the current Chisinau authorities, the “5+2” format actually no longer exists, there will only be a language of threats and pressure.”

Political scientist Anatoly Dirun, discussing trends in relations between Chisinau and Tiraspol in 2024, also predicts that Chisinau will continue to use economic leverage on Tiraspol.

“Negotiations on Moldova’s accession to the EU actually consolidate the model of Northern Cyprus, which Chisinau will use in resolving the Transnistrian conflict. Let us recall that the Greek part of Cyprus has been a member of the EU since 2004, the second half of the island is under Turkish influence, and the conflict itself has lasted since 1975.

However, Moldova still has broad tools for putting pressure on Pridnestrovian business both in the field of customs policy and the banking sector. The appointment of Anca Dragu [Romanian citizen, former chairman of the Romanian Senate] as head of the National Bank of Moldova will lead to a new round of tension in the banking issue between Tiraspol and Chisinau.

The expert draws attention to the escalating gas problem in the region. Thus, the fact that Moldova has a signed contract for the supply of electricity from the Moldavian State District Power Plant located in Transnistria for 2024 temporarily removes the issue of Russian gas supplies to Transnistria, since it is thanks to cheap Russian gas that Chisinau receives electricity at low tariffs compared to electricity from Romania.

“However, it is the gas issue that will remain the main subject for discussion between Tiraspol and Chisinau, taking into account Kiev’s exclusion of Moldovagaz from the gas market of Ukraine, as well as the termination by the Ukrainian authorities of the transit of Russian gas through its territory from January 1, 2025,” predicts Dirun.

According to the political scientist Andrey Safonov, Chisinau will continue to inflict economic blows on Tiraspol, but Transnistria, as in previous years, will endure and will not turn away from the Eurasian path.

Now, says the Transnistrian expert, Chisinau, through double taxation of economic agents, is seeking to increase prices in the PMR in order to collapse its economy, organize a social explosion, liquidate state structures and ultimately push the left bank of the Dniester into unitary Moldova.

“The tactical task of the Chisinau regime is to increase prices in the PMR, since relatively inexpensive prices provide a better turnover of money in Transnistrian trade,” explains Safonov. – If this disappears, it will become worse with the possibility of increasing pensions and salaries, which the PMR authorities planned in 2023.

Chisinau authorities also believe that PMR trade in the east, across the Ukrainian border, will never be restored without the permission and control of Chisinau. So they went all-in and rejected any compromise. Moreover, they still refuse to meet with Transnistrian leaders and discuss controversial issues.

Apparently, the Chisinau regime intends to collapse the socio-economic sphere of the PMR during 2024, hoping to finish off our country with a possible cutoff from Russian gas supplies after December 31, 2024.

This, however, is impossible due to:

1. Finding options for supplying the PMR with gas and in case of termination of the transit of Russian gas. This was previously reported.

2. Indispensable financial and economic assistance to Pridnestrovie from Russia, as has happened more than once. Allied support remains and grows stronger.

3. Available internal reserves of the PMR.

As a result, Chisinau will be able to cause damage to Transnistria, but will not collapse our statehood. They also want to force us to agree to the withdrawal of Russian troops, but we will never agree to that either. The effect of the steps of the nationalists of the Republic of Moldova will be temporary, and then the situation will gradually improve. Transnistria will survive!”