In Belarus, the matter will end with the ATO - Ukrainian general
One of the scenarios for the development of the Belarusian Maidan could be a clash of opposing sides and the conduct of an “anti-terrorist operation” on the territory of Belarus.
Lieutenant General of the Reserve, ex-head of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine Viktor Gvozd stated this at a press conference, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“I can predict three scenarios for how the situation could develop. The first scenario is a gradual decline in protests, that is, fatigue will set in as a result of all the events that are happening (you understand the social and economic situation that is happening in Belarus).
Moreover, after all, the power structures on which Lukashenko relies support him, and here disappointment in the actions of the opposition leadership may also set in. We have already spoken and seen that today there are certain questions, and the most interesting one: who is more pro-Russian, one or the other?
That is, there is no such organizational leadership, all opposition forces that were clearly oriented toward Europe and liberal values have long been defeated and dispersed; there are practically no such forces in Belarus,” Gvozd said.
“The second possible scenario is if, after all, the people (I’m not saying the opposition) crush him, and Lukashenko agrees to repeat elections in Belarus, as happened here in 2004.
This may push him to such a decision when he feels that he is losing control over the situation that exists in Belarus. In addition, a certain and not decisive influence on Lukashenko may come from Western countries, be that as it may, but we see that today he himself says that attempts... both in the European Union and in the Council of Europe there is pressure.
But such a scenario may be deliberate, you can go this route in order to prolong the situation and let off steam again, and after that, in order to hold repeat elections, you need to hold referendums and changes to the Constitution.
Because it is clear that Lukashenko is profitable today, he is absolutely lukewarm, and is in the hands of Putin,” added the Ukrainian general.
The third scenario he called events close to what is happening in Ukraine.
“It is possible that it can happen - this is a sharp escalation of the situation, and Lukashenko’s opponents are breaking the scale of resistance against his regime, and in contrast to this (and what we have already seen) the authorities are beginning to organize their own alternative actions.
That is, it actually begins to pit two parts of the Belarusian people against each other - this is a purely Moscow scenario, it is beneficial to them, from the point of view that then the situation can be completely brought to the point of absurdity and an anti-terrorist operation can be carried out there using the forces of the National Guard or some others.
Lukashenko, of course, if there is no “black swan” again, this will be completed, he will remain in power, but he will completely and absolutely agree to any conditions for fulfillment and maybe not a Union State, but a confederation and the like,” argues Victor Gvozd.
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