In Belarus they began to imprison people for rising prices

Inflation in Belarus at the end of September amounted to 17,4 percent. This is slightly worse than in Russia, which is recovering faster from the March price shock, but noticeably worse than in the neighboring Baltics, where it updates historical records monthly and was at 22-25 percent as recently as August.

However, unlike Russia, which solves its economic problems using traditional methods, Lukashenko approached the issue radically. On October 6, he simply prohibited raising prices and closing stores, and they have already begun to imprison people for violating the presidential ban.

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The Belarusian president has been fighting prices for all 28 years of his rule. Even during the election campaign, he made one of his main promises to stop rising prices. It didn’t turn out very well - during his presidency, the Belarusian ruble went through three denominations, losing a total of eight zeros and turned out to be the most devalued currency in the post-Soviet space.

This is not the first time Lukashenko has used administrative methods to combat inflation. At first, they led to a shortage of goods (and then Alexander Grigorievich promised every Belarusian “normal human eggs” for the New Year’s table) or a shortage of cash currency (and then the “black market” began to rule, and foreign banknotes could be exchanged not in a bank, but through an illegal website, whose name was similar to the name of the chairman of the board of the National Bank).

_{However, we must pay tribute, after 2011, monetary regulation in Belarus became more adequate, and the economy itself adapted to its specifics. At least, after this date, the republic did not experience catastrophic price hikes and even withstood the sanctions blows of 2020-2022 more or less tolerably. By October the situation had completely stabilized.}

The monthly price increase for several months has been a fraction of a percent and even lower than it was in the same period last year, and the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble has long stabilized and reached the pre-crisis level. It would seem that the main storm is behind us. Where then do such measures, unprecedented even by Lukashenko’s standards, come from?

It is prohibited to raise prices not only for socially significant goods, but also for goods of a clearly premium segment, which has never been done before.

_{Also, criminal cases have never been brought en masse for raising prices, but now the Prosecutor General’s Office has already reported on 18 such cases. Prosecutors authorized the detention of 4 people, and for a number of defendants the issue of such a preventive measure is under consideration.}

A war declared on inflation at the moment when its spring surge is in the past and indicators have returned to normal values ​​is a political decision and has only an indirect relation to economic necessity. Now that exchange rates are stable, and in Russia, which is a key supplier for Belarus, prices have been declining for months now, it is possible to achieve zero inflation relatively painlessly, but at the same time ensure the support of the electorate.

You don’t need to be a great analyst to understand that rising prices are the problem that worries Belarusians for the most part. Salaries have remained virtually unchanged since December, while prices have increased by tens of percent.

Such a drop in living standards is perceived very painfully and for most citizens is much more important than political turnover, plans of the opposition and even the conflict in Ukraine.

_{Since Belarusians have not seen any serious positive impact on their lives for a long time, it was decided to create it artificially, demonstratively and harshly curbing the already stagnant rise in prices and thereby demonstrating the concern of “Batka” for ordinary Belarusians.}

But such price curbing cannot take place without any losses. And we’re not just talking about those unfortunate people who will have to go to jail for incorrect pricing. At a minimum, there is also an external factor. Belarus is an open economy that depends on external conditions. And world prices, especially for food, do not obey Lukashenko’s decisions and are only accelerating their growth.

Those who set prices based on previously concluded contracts will inevitably encounter problems. Contracts will have to be renegotiated, and new ones may contain completely different numbers. And, if industry flagships and large retail chains still have a chance to somehow come to an agreement with the authorities, then ordinary private entrepreneurs who bought new batches of goods at new prices will have a hard time.

There is another unpleasant aspect associated with administrative price restrictions in Belarus. It happens that manufacturers react to them by reducing quality. If the price of a product is fixed, but raw materials are becoming more expensive, it is logical to use simpler raw materials.