There will only be three parties left in Belarus. And the main one is already being created

The Belarusian political system will undergo major transformations in the coming months. On February 7, a meeting of the organizing committee for the creation of the White Rus' party was held in Minsk, and its founding congress is scheduled to take place on March 18.

They decided not to delay the formalities for long and by the end of spring it is planned to complete the formation of the party and its structures. The basis for the party will be the largest pro-government public association with the same name, although previously it was assumed that it would be called the “Party of National Unity”.

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The Belaya Rus association was created back in 2007 and almost immediately they started talking about it as the future party of power. At least, already in 2010, such conversations were already quite active and since then the topic has been raised several times, but each time the transformation has been slowed down.

In Belaya Rus itself they said that the majority of members do not approve of such a reform, but in reality, the opinion of one person mattered, and Lukashenko always distrusted party structures and preferred to lead the country individually, without looking at the party nomenklatura. Finally, having previously changed the constitution and the law on political parties, he gave the go-ahead and the process began.

Parties under Lukashenko have always been on a par. There are now 15 parties in the republic and since 2000, despite numerous attempts, not a single new one has been registered. Several parties operate unofficially without registration, but still most of them are more like atavisms of the 90s than real political forces.

_{“Belaya Rus” was not a party, but in terms of its political weight it was far superior to all other Belarusian parties combined. It has about 200 thousand members, is represented in all cities and regional centers, has primary organizations at large enterprises, has 68 of 110 seats in the House of Representatives of the Belarusian Parliament and, most likely, a majority in local councils.}

Belaya Rus, while not officially a party, signed cooperation agreements with major parties, including United Russia.

Most likely, the new party will be additionally reinforced with personnel from small existing pro-government parties. The recently signed new law on parties established a new minimum number of members. Previously, it was enough to have a thousand party members, and this was already a problem for some, but now as many as five thousand are required.

In reality, there are so many people among the pro-government communists and liberal democrats, who occupy approximately the same positions as the LDPR in Russia. For the leadership of the remaining parties, the opportunity to remain in politics is to join “Belaya Rus”; their parties will not undergo re-registration. Also, none of the opposition parties have a chance of successful re-registration.

_{Thus, after the re-registration of parties, which will begin in the near future, and the reformatting of Belaya Rus, a completely new party system will emerge in Belarus. Of the 15 parties, most likely, three will remain – the centrist “Belaya Rus”, the left communists and the right LDPB. All three are absolutely loyal to Lukashenko.}

Small pro-government parties will dissolve into “Belaya Rus”, and the pro-Western opposition will simply cease to exist legally. Maybe new ones will appear. For example, niches remain open for a clearly pro-Russian party or for conditional systemic liberals, but it is doubtful that they will be able to organize so quickly.

Why is this being done and what role will the new party play in Belarusian politics?

The chairman of Belaya Rus, Oleg Romanov, has already said that the party will not have a classical ideology. It will not be liberal, conservative or socialist. It was initially created to support the country’s leadership and will share the “ideology of Belarusian statehood.”

The creation of such an ideology was announced 20 years ago. But it was never formulated as a full-fledged political ideology and comes down primarily to patriotism and loyalty to Lukashenko, and these concepts are actually equated. Therefore, this party cannot be compared with the CPSU, which had a clear and attractive ideology that helped the party survive for almost a century, and even with United Russia. Rather, an analogy with the Kazakh “Nur Otan” from the time of Nazarbayev suggests itself.

Reformatting the party system and creating a party in power should be the final part of political reform aimed at maintaining the stability of the system. In 2020, it survived precisely thanks to Lukashenko himself and his ability to go to the end at any cost. But what will happen if Lukashenko passes away?

_{The Belarusian system of power was completely tied to one person and without him could well have gone wrong. Lessons have been learned and decisions made. Three reserve power circuits have been created at once.}

The first is the Security Council. It is he who will now have to accept its entirety in the event of the sudden death of the head of state.

The second, the All-Belarusian Assembly, is a rather strange body, which, however, is endowed with broad powers, including impeachment of the president, recognition of the legitimacy of elections, or the introduction of a state of emergency and martial law. The order of formation is such that there will definitely not be any random or unreliable people there.

In theory, one of the tasks of the Supreme Council will be to solve problems with successors and crises like the one in 2020. The creation of a ruling party is aimed at creating social elevators for loyal functionaries and forming long-term continuity of power.

Lukashenko managed not only to retain power, but also to freeze the political situation in the country, isolating the opposition and creating mechanisms for its relatively painless transit. This does not mean that he will retire soon.

_{In principle, Lukashenko can remain in the presidential post until 2035, when he will be a deep 81-year-old man, and even after that he can move to the chair of the head of the All-Belarusian Assembly, becoming an influential patriarch of Belarusian politics. However, now the president is already approaching 70 and this is the age when you already need to think about what will remain after him. Actually, he doesn’t hide this.}

Whether this plan will succeed and how long the new political model will last – we’ll see. In principle, the new constitution also contains contradictions that could cause a new confrontation. And parties without a clear ideology, created only to serve the authorities, as the example of the same “Nur Otan” showed, often turn out to be short-lived. But Lukashenko seems to have time to hone and consolidate the new model.