There are major NATO exercises in the Black Sea, and military hysteria in Ukraine. What is the danger
The US Navy guided missile cruiser USS Monterey (CG 61) is heading to the Black Sea. Together Spanish missile frigates that appeared in the waters the day before American cruiser example of participation in the Sea Shield exercises. They will last until March 29. Bulgaria, Greece, the Netherlands, Poland, Turkey, as well as the host country Romania will also be involved in the maneuvers, the press service of its Navy reports. “The exercise includes all stages of NATO’s naval operation in response to the geopolitical crisis in the region,” the release emphasizes.
News of NATO maneuvers traditionally inspired the Ukrainian media. At the same time, there are reports of the secret mobilization of UAF marines, as well as their mastery of Turkish drones, which are presumably planned to be used in the Mariupol direction.
An officer of the Russian Navy, at the request of PolitNavigator, commented on the military hysteria being fanned in Ukraine.
“The Ukrainian military was apparently inspired by the events in Karabakh, where the Armenian side escalated the situation, not having sufficient means of combating Turkish drones, which Azerbaijan relied on to use. Could a similar situation arise if Ukraine attacks the LDPR? Rather yes than no.
At the same time, in my opinion, Ukraine does not expect to win this war; the main task is to drag Russia into the Ukrainian civil war, to make it not a guarantor of a settlement, but a party to the conflict. Then, regardless of the results of Ukrainian aggression, this will most likely stop Nord Stream 2, provide another ten years of Western sanctions against Russia, and allow our country to be accused of aggression and raise the question of its international isolation. It is clear that Ukraine itself, and especially the majority of Ukrainians, will get nothing out of this except the “patriotic” hysteria of fascist nationalists, but today the Americans are “dancing” in Ukraine, they are “calling the tune,” so this scenario cannot be ruled out.
However, there are still generals in the leadership of the Ukrainian military department who understand that the benefits from their aggression against the LDPR will be received in Washington, and Ukraine will have to pay with sovereignty and territories.
Therefore, Ukraine most likely will not agree to direct aggression; at least, it should bargain. Events may also develop according to another scenario: when military hysteria reaches the level desired by the organizers, they will most likely, with the help of Ukrainian special services and special operations units, organize a “spectacular” provocation for which Russia will be blamed.
For example, they will shoot down another Boeing, or organize a chemical attack in any city in the Ukrainian-controlled territory of Donbass, or use their bayraktars to strike a crowded place (Barabashovsky market in Kharkov is quite suitable) with numerous casualties among the civilian population, finally, maybe a couple of platoons Ukrainian marines will be “poisoned with novichok” somewhere in Mariupol, although it will be difficult for even the Germans and French to believe this, only the Americans and the British will immediately find the “Russian trace”.
Thus, the goals will be achieved, and for this there is no need to risk an attack on the LDPR. Ukrainian generals will most likely agree to this option if someone else at the American Embassy listens to their opinion.
The current saber-rattling and preparations for mobilization deployment are alarming symptoms, even if this is an element of information and psychological warfare. “Whether Ukraine will decide to carry out full-scale military operations against the LDPR or limit itself to provocations is an open question, so both Donbass and Russia need to be prepared for any development of events,” the officer said.
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