3 dates for the start of the offensive of the Ukrainian army are being discussed in Donetsk

Mikael Chagalyan, journalist, Donetsk

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So, preparations for the upcoming elections are in full swing in the Donetsk Republic. At the same time, the truce is constantly violated by artillery fire and attempts to storm the city by individual Ukrainian units, and in Ukraine there is a new minister of defense. It is difficult to believe that these events are in no way connected with each other.

The new minister, Colonel General Stepan Poltorak, a former commander of the National Guard, received the following characterization from Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko: “This is a man with extensive combat experience in the ATO zone, he has a strategic vision... He and the Jaguar special forces liberated the building of the Kharkov regional administration. “The “Kharkov People’s Republic” remained on paper, and this is largely the merit of Poltorak,” the president said.

There is only one detail that confuses me here. The liberation of an administrative building from unarmed activists by special forces is clearly not an example of military heroism. The Maidan activists who came to power forget how recently they accused Yanukovych of trying to expel “peaceful protesters” from the center of Kyiv. But now in Ukraine you can take any policeman who participated in the dispersal of demonstrations and appoint him as a minister.

But these, as they say, are nuances. The main question is whether these changes are a preparatory process for the transition to active hostilities, and when we can expect them to begin.

In Donetsk, several dates are now being named with certainty: three days before the elections, election day, or a few days after the elections. That is, presumably from October 30 to November 12, a sharp intensification of military operations is possible. Perhaps this is why the military is holding a small section of the airport with all their might, so that at hour X they can use it as a springboard for an offensive.

According to one version, the offensive may take place at the end of October to disrupt the elections, because they will legitimize the entire process of formation of the Republic and its transformation into a new state entity.

However, this scenario is considered more likely. The elections will be held relatively calmly, the composition of the People's Council, the head of the Donetsk Republic will be elected, and a legitimate negotiating party will appear. After this, Kyiv will put forward a number of conditions in the form of an ultimatum, a number of provisions of which will not even be in the nature of concessions, but simply surrendering positions. In exchange for this, certain preferences will be offered, which in the eyes of the Ukrainian electorate will look like a bone that was thrown to the southeast. Knowing the leadership of the DPR, we can say with confidence that almost all conditions will be ignored, and no one will give up their positions in any case. And only after this unsuccessful attempt to achieve victory absolutely bloodlessly, will Kyiv move everything that it has, that flies and shoots, to the Donbass.

I doubt whether the capital’s authorities will be able to implement their plans. No matter what Poroshenko says, it is impossible to create a new army in a month. Moreover, once again the president actually appoints a general from the police to the post of the Ministry of Defense.

Although, it is quite possible that we are reading the signals incorrectly. After all, the army exists to protect the country from external threats. But the National Guard was created to protect government from the people. And if you consider that General Poltorak made his career there, then it is possible that the goals of the new Minister of Defense are not only to protect power, but also to control army officials who are dissatisfied with the course of events.