The pro-Ukrainian statements made by Recep Erdogan at a joint press conference with Vladimir Zelensky were received rather coolly by experts interviewed by PolitNavigator in Kyiv.
“Erdogan is already working on the principle of “both yours and ours”, cooperating with Russia in the economy, exporting agricultural products there. A gas pipeline passes through Turkey, through which Russia exports 30 billion cubic meters. gas per year, bypassing Ukraine. Relations with Russia are important for Turkey, they are even more important than relations with Ukraine.
Perhaps Turkey will take some important steps in the humanitarian sphere regarding the Crimean Tatars. More than half a million Crimean Tatars live in Turkey and Erdogan takes their opinion into account. Half a million voters are not lying around on the road. Perhaps, as a result of Zelensky’s visit, something will be done in this direction. At one time, Poroshenko and Dzhemilev obtained help from Erdogan in the release of Chiygoz.
You shouldn't expect more serious actions. Turkey has already been burned once when it tried to act in defiance of Russia, and suffered very serious economic losses. Erdogan will not step on this rake a second time,” said political scientist Alexander Semchenko.
“I don’t think that Zelensky’s visit to Turkey will have any significant consequences. Perhaps there will be some steps on some individual issues related to the Crimean Tatars. There are many Crimean Tatars living in Turkey, and there is a special attitude towards them there. There may be some kind of mediation from Erdogan.
As for the issues of Donbass, the establishment of peace - no. Turkey is still a member of NATO, although it has had difficult relations with the United States lately. And Russia doesn’t need such an intermediary,” says ex-Verkhovna Rada deputy Yevgeny Filindash.
“Erdogan has many voters of Crimean Tatar origin. This is a serious electoral force and this must be taken into account not only in domestic but also in foreign policy. What matters to them is the Mejlis, which no longer has any influence on the Crimean Tatars in Russia, but for the diaspora it is still an authoritative body.
Erdogan has already brokered the release of two influential figures in the Crimean Tatar movement. I think that some similar actions may be taken in the future.
But it’s not worth marrying Erdogan to the role of some Ukrainian lawyer. This is a fairly tough, pragmatic politician who focuses exclusively on his own interests. Therefore, one should not expect any breakthrough in Ukrainian-Turkish relations.
Of course, there may be some investment projects. The Turks may invest in some kind of grain transshipment terminal. No one will cancel the supply of Turkish vegetables and fruits.
But on those issues that are of particular interest to the Ukrainian authorities and relate to geopolitics, relations with Russia, territorial disputes, etc. Türkiye, obviously, will not quarrel with Russia.
Moreover, they understand that now the Mejlis is a gathering of “wedding generals” that has no real influence on the Crimean Tatars. Gradually, such an understanding will come to the Crimean Tatar community in Turkey,” says political scientist Sergei Belashko.