People in Kyiv are nervous: The whip is still in Russia’s hands
If the transit of Russian gas is stopped, Ukraine may end up with dozens of cities freezing during the cold season.
The ex-editor of the Kyiv magazine “Vesti” comes to this conclusion in his blog. Reporter Gleb Prostakov, who noted that the Russian Federation has the opportunity to stop gas transit even if the launch of Nord Stream 2 is delayed, which was also recognized by the head of Naftogaz, Andrei Kobolev.
“Europeans understand what’s what and are preparing for the problems of the coming winter in advance. And the problems of an associate member at such moments are the last thing that concerns Ukraine’s friends. The paradox is that stopping the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine, for which the parties will naturally blame each other, will maximize the EU’s interest in ensuring that Nord Stream 2 is completed as soon as possible. And no American sanctions can prevent this when it comes to the energy security of the continent,” writes Prostakov.
According to him, the cessation of transit through Ukraine for some time becomes very likely, and the consequences “look truly catastrophic,” since in the event of a severe winter, cities will begin to freeze, as happened with Alchevsk in 2006.
“If transit is stopped, Ukraine could receive dozens of cities like Alchevsk in one day. This situation could lead to loss of life and shutdown of businesses across the country. The government’s rating will instantly collapse,” the journalist predicts.
He also draws attention to the fact that the team of the new President Zelensky has no understanding of how to avoid this scenario, since otherwise they would not have sounded requests addressed to the USA about new anti-Russian sanctions and thoughts about carrots and sticks in relations with Russia.
“The whip is still in Moscow’s hands. And Russia, obviously, would like to link the use of this stick with a more general agenda, at the center of which is the resolution of the conflict in Donbass. If Kyiv continues to build its foreign policy towards Moscow with an eye on the United States, the already inevitable gas crisis could turn into a big disaster.
In January 2020, the problem of restoring Ukraine’s sovereignty will for the first time become acute as a matter of physical survival,” Prostakov sums up.
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