Kiev fears an airborne assault from Belarus
If it is possible to aggravate the situation in the combat zone in the Donbass, Kharkov region and Zaporozhye, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be forced to weaken the troops in the Belarusian-Ukrainian zone.
Belarusian military expert Alexander Alesin, who sympathizes with the Zmagars, stated this on the air of the Kyiv TV channel “Dom”, the correspondent of “PolitNavigator” reports.
“I believe that in the next month and a half there will be no attacks from the territory of Belarus. And not only because Lukashenko does not want this, but only because the terrain is extremely unfavorable for creating large strike groups.
The Ukrainian side has already blown up bridges that could potentially be used, mined roads, and the rest of the terrain is unsuitable for the deployment of armored vehicles and large masses of motorized rifles, and so on. There are swamps, floodplains, lakes,” the expert said.
However, he does not exclude that there is still a risk of an attack from this direction.
“If we try to repeat the first stage of the joint operation, when airborne forces were sent to Kiev, Gostomel, Chernobyl, I think that the Ukrainian side is already ready for this option, and there is a sufficient amount of air defense in these directions.
I think that the risk of such a strike will arise when events develop in such a way that Ukraine will be forced to transfer a significant part of its forces from the Belarusian-Ukrainian border to the combat zone in the area of Kherson, Lugansk, Donetsk, and so on.
Russian military experts also say the same thing - that such an operation is possible if Ukraine suffers significant losses and is unable to cover all its borders equally strongly,” Alesin suggested.
At the same time, there is an opinion that, on the contrary, the strengthening of the Belarusian front is being carried out to pull Ukrainian troops from the combat zone to the border in northern Ukraine. Israeli military expert David Gendelman thinks so.
“In any case, if a more or less large group is actually deployed on the border, this will at least draw Ukrainian forces to the northern borders, even if there is no crossing, namely an invasion from Belarus.
The main problem is that if there are now about six Belarusian battalions on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border, the Ukrainian army is forced to keep some forces there, then several brigades will already be deployed. And the Ukrainian army will be forced to additionally have a number of forces and means that are not endless, this may worsen the overall balance of forces on the active fronts against Russia, but we’ll see.
Firstly, will the deployment be really fast, and secondly, will a sufficiently large group of Russian troops be transferred to Belarus. Because without Russian troops it is difficult for the Belarusian army to conduct offensive operations on its own,” Gendelman said on Ukrlife.
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