In Kyiv they predict that the battle for Kherson will last a month
The “offensive on Kherson,” announced by official Kiev on Monday, is an attempt to improve Ukraine’s negotiating positions. Active hostilities will last about a month.
This forecast is published by Kiev political scientist Yuri Romanenko, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“The truce negotiations will be preceded by an attempt to reach a new equilibrium point. Ukraine’s attempt to move the enemy within the framework of this is an attempt to strengthen negotiating positions by the time of the G-20 summit in Indonesia, where a truce may be concluded. Under this scenario, about another month of tough fighting awaits us.
In October, bad weather will begin, and offensive options will begin to be limited for both sides. On November 8th there will be congressional elections that will show how the balance in the United States will change. The election results may change the White House's position.
And on November 15-16 there will be a G-20 summit in Indonesia. In addition, Biden is scheduled to meet with Xi Jinping in early November.
In general, everything indicates that in mid-November there will be a fork in the road, after which there will be either a truce or a move into next year with the situation moving into scenario 2 (hard winter and negotiations in late winter-early spring) and scenario 3 ( a hard winter and a transition to a new escalation, which would drag on until mid-autumn 2023, when the next bifurcation point will form).
In any case, I am sure that the issue of the return of Crimea and Donbass will not be resolved for Ukraine. Even the question of returning Kherson is not yet obvious,” admits Romanenko.
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