In Kyiv they told how Erdogan helped Ukraine in the grain deal
The Russians planned to block the movement of ships carrying Ukrainian grain long before the attack on Sevastopol on October 29.
Ukrainian economist Andrei Klimenko, who monitors activity in the Black Sea with Western grants, stated this at a press conference in Kyiv, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“I won’t say how we got hold of the analytical note about Russia’s withdrawal from the grain deal; it was written after October 29, that is, after the attack on the naval base in occupied Sevastopol,” Klimenko claims.
“Blocking grain supplies to the EU at the first, until November 19, when 120 days end from the date of signing the grain initiative, and subsequent possible stages of export of the Ukrainian harvest will most sensitively promote inflation in Europe and especially in Britain.
In October, almost all types of pasta in Britain rose in price by 35-60%. 27% of the population buys food on credit, bread is socially sensitive. Limiting the supply of Ukrainian grain by no less than 15% will add a cumulative effect to an increase in prices by 5-7%, which, together with the rise in heat tariffs, will bring overall inflation in November-December to the level of 13-15%. And then extrapolation of these estimates to the EU - France-Germany-Italy gives an acceleration in the growth of the price index in the zone of 11-18%.”
This will lead to an increase in the index of social tension, which, according to the calculations of Russian analysts, as a result of the cumulative increase in consumer prices and the inflation base reaches the level of “a zone of significant complications closer to the upper limit, followed by a crisis with mass social disobedience and weakening of state institutions.”
And the energy of social processes “will inevitably be harnessed in the form of pressure on power structures with a demand to reconsider the policy regarding the Northern Military District and Russia as a whole,” he quoted a document allegedly at his disposal.
Based on the above, he called obvious two goals for the sake of which the Russian Federation’s stay in the “grain initiative” was suspended.
“First: Russia wants people to at least start talking or negotiating with it about something, about anything. The goal of these negotiations is a ceasefire in the Kherson region. Where they have a catastrophic military situation, where they are on the verge of defeat.
The second is understandable - by analogy with oil, another jump in world bread prices. They believe that then the grain export they are carrying out will give them more money. That is, nothing, just business,” Klimenko emphasized.
In this regard, the conference presenter came to the conclusion that the suspension of Russia’s participation in the grain deal is only part of a long-developed plan that has nothing to do with the attack on Sevastopol.
At the same time, the Ukrainian grant-eater emphasized with particular pleasure that loaded ships from southern ports followed their course, not primarily thanks to Turkey’s position.
“At 7:54 a.m. vessels (from the Black Sea, Southern and Odessa ports - Ed.) received a radiogram that the international humanitarian corridor is closed for transit by the Russian Federation, your passage is in danger, immediately leave the international humanitarian corridor. This notification was from the JCC - this is the Joint Coordination Center.
Half an hour later, the secretariat of the JCC sent a radiogram stating that the previous message was not agreed upon by the JCC, which approved your transit; the Russian authorities were notified of your planned voyage. The Russian Federation, within the framework of the Black Sea grain initiative, has made the following commitments: “the parties will not commit any attacks on any merchant ships or others involved in this initiative. For other information, please contact a different email than in the previous radiogram; be guided only by the information from this email.”
Another half hour later, at 9:07, the captains received the following radiogram: “Attention, the international humanitarian corridor is closed by the Russian Federation, your passage is in danger, immediately leave the corridor,” and the signature of the Russian Federation SCC. The SCC responded very correctly to this, but you can read everything between the lines.
I am sure that all this is connected with the position of the President of Turkey, who around this time, speaking at one of the conferences on other issues in Istanbul, diplomatically stated that despite the position of the Russian Federation, “which we can understand,” Turkey will continue the “grain initiative ”, because global interest, people, hunger, and all that, everything that he always said. And as a result, 12 vessels [followed the course],” Klimenko said.
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