In Kyiv they are arguing about how Russia will finish off Independence - with a landing in Novorossiya or a blockade of Odessa
Russia may carry out an amphibious landing operation in the southern regions of Ukraine as early as this year. Former Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Admiral Igor Kabanenko said this on air on the Iceland Internet channel, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
According to Kabanenko, the sea coast is the most vulnerable point of Ukraine today.
“This is possible, and the probability of this is high; according to my own expert assessment, I would put this risk in first place. This will not be a classic amphibious operation, a traditional one. But this will be a certain mix of elements - airborne, amphibious, special operations, Ground Forces and so on with a certain combination of what is happening in the Donbass, in the north.
But I would put this risk in first place - it is from the south, from the sea that such combined actions can be taken, because here you can find a reason, there are many reasons why this can be done,” Kabanenko said.
Military expert, one of the developers of the Ukrainian naval strategy, Gan Peter Midthun, did not agree with him. In his opinion, in order to bleed Ukraine, Russia does not need to land troops on its territory - it is enough to begin a blockade of the main ports through which imports and exports are carried out.
“I think that a full-scale invasion is unlikely, because Russia can achieve its goal without taking part in a big battle... Russia can, without military action, without even giving Ukraine the opportunity to fight back, block access to the Black Sea, block sea lines and communications. This will have a great impact on the economy of the entire Ukraine. 25% of all Ukrainian GDP is associated with transit, transportation, resource exploitation, and so on. But if you take into account the effect of losing sea access, it will have a very large impact on GDP. And at the moment, Ukraine is not able to resist this threat,” laments the Ukrainian expert.
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