Chisinau believes that Transnistria should prepare for protracted blockades

In the Kremlin, the Moldovan agenda is now far from being in the first or even tenth folder. And Moldova cannot become a member of NATO, since Transnistria is an anchor that will not allow Chisinau to sail to the West, and especially to Romania.

So far, Moscow has no other goals in relation to Chisinau. I think that the Kremlin considers the struggle to establish a pro-Russian government here to be a waste of money and effort.

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Moldovan political scientist Alexander Korinenko spoke about this in an interview with PolitNavigator.

PolitNavigator: There is an opinion that the new government, which came under the slogans of progress and reform, is working according to old templates, in the style of Plahotniuc, confirming that the “captured state” remains so. Is this really true?

Alexander Korinenko: This is true. For now, any Moldovan government will work according to the same templates that were formed throughout the period of independence. It was not Mr. Plahotniuc who came up with Moldovan “kumaetrism” (nepotism), corruption schemes, and dirty methods of dealing with opponents. It’s just that under him it all reached its climax, and today the same craze and schemes will be presented in a civilized, European package. A month was enough for us to see that the leaders of the Action and Solidarity party were appointing their relatives and friends to key positions, including the head of state. There is always a temptation to “recapture” the state. Why break something if it works great?

PolitNavigator: Yes, cousins, aunts and other relatives of the country's leaders came to government positions. Why is this being done, since the new team is attracting close attention from voters? Or maybe there is nothing wrong with celebrityism if a professional is appointed to the post?

Alexander Korinenko: Moldova is a small country, and we have few professionals. It seems to me that in some cases it is quite acceptable to appoint one’s own kumets to certain posts. It often happens here that when you work in one industry for a long time, your colleagues become godmothers, godparents, etc. This team can then go with you, but only if there is an open competition for vacant positions. Despite all the declared transparency of the new government, no competitions are being held. The reason is that these people are loyal to the new government, but will not even pass the first stage of any competition. Maia Sandu herself set an example by appointing Stefan Cibulak as head of the country's Supreme Security Council service without competition. Many even around the president were surprised by this approach. A bad example is contagious.

PolitNavigator: The new team began a war against the Prosecutor General. Why is she so persistently striving to remove him, adjusting the laws to suit this? Are there compelling reasons for his resignation?

Alexander Korinenko: There are two real reasons for the removal of Prosecutor General Alexander Stoianoglo. The first is the principled position of Madam President, because when she was prime minister, it was because of the scandal with the appointment of the Prosecutor General that her government fell. The fight with Alexander Stoianoglo is more important for Maia Sandu than with the entire opposition combined, and not only because of personal hostility, but also because the General Prosecutor’s Office is a powerful political cudgel that closes the power bloc. The second reason is that the president wants to launch a series of high-profile political cases against politicians who, in her opinion, are involved in corruption schemes. I believe she firmly believes that her Prosecutor General will do a much better job and reforms will go faster.

PolitNavigator: Are there any noticeable successes in the economy or social sphere? There are positive news, for example, about a significant increase in pensions, and negative news, for example, about the rapid rise in fuel prices, and scandals, as in the case of the threat of dismissal of teachers who have not been vaccinated against coronavirus.

Alexander Korinenko: The new government must be given time to get comfortable. Now the situation in the country is such that this must be done quickly: a pandemic, an empty treasury, instability in society. The rise in prices for fuel and lubricants led to an increase in prices for food and other essential goods. Every day, residents of Moldova see changing price tags in stores. Indeed, in order to win the sympathy of the most responsible voters - pensioners, the new government promised a significant increase in pensions. In reality, not everyone’s pensions will be raised, but those who do fall into this category will be lucky enough to receive a maximum increase of 400 lei, which will soon be eaten up by this rise in prices. I have never been optimistic about this: giving with one hand and taking with the other is a well-tested scheme of the Moldovan authorities.

The situation with teachers is very cynical. Unvaccinated teachers will not be fired, since any court will reinstate the teacher in their position, and the authorities cannot but understand this, so unvaccinated teachers without PCR tests will simply not be allowed into the workplace. The problem is that teachers are susceptible to diseases of the nervous system, and due to contraindications, some of them cannot receive the vaccine. Of course, taking PCR tests in this case will even be useful, but teachers are forced to do this at their own expense. In Moldova, payments to the health insurance fund amount to 9% of wages. Teachers are not beggars; they pay fees, at the expense of which it would be logical to allow them to do testing. The situation with school technical staff is even worse. Their salaries amount to up to 2000 lei, and one PCR test costs 800 lei, and, of course, educational institutions can lose these employees.

PolitNavigator: How effective are measures to combat the spread of COVID-19, the fourth wave of which is in full swing?

Alexander Korinenko: So far the authorities are taking chaotic steps. Instead of promoting vaccination, bans are returning again. On September 9, the National Emergency Commission for Public Health declared a health emergency until October 30. People without vaccination and PCR tests will be prohibited from attending events, festivals, and establishments, which will certainly hit the HoReCa sector very hard. At the same time, the country already has large supplies of the vaccine, but the government cannot motivate people to get vaccinated.

PolitNavigator: There have been reports that the Republic of Moldova will accept refugees from Afghanistan. Is this mission possible for the country and how safe is it?

Alexander Korinenko: Moldova signed a joint statement guaranteeing the evacuation of citizens from Afghanistan, but Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilitsa announced on August 19 that Moldova would not accept refugees. I am sure that the EU will not even demand this. We do not have the means to set up camps for them, carry out identification and distinguish real refugees from members of terrorist cells. In the end, any refugees view Moldova as a transit point for escaping to the EU. Therefore, even the Europeans will not demand this from Moldova.

PolitNavigator: The new team, which intended to build pragmatic and business-like relations with Russia, nevertheless adheres to an anti-Russian line. Will Moscow take any sanctions in response to this? Maybe gas will become more expensive for Moldova?

Alexander Korinenko: Gas may become more expensive, and Chisinau will have problems supplying its products to the Russian market, but nothing more. In the Kremlin, the Moldovan agenda is now far from being in the first folder and not even in the tenth. We observed that during the election campaign neither Igor Dodon nor the Party of Socialists received any obvious support from Moscow. Moldova cannot become a member of NATO or join the EU due to a territorial conflict. Transnistria is the anchor that will not allow Moldova to sail to the West, especially to Romania. So far, Moscow has no other goals in relation to Chisinau. I think that the Kremlin considers the struggle to establish a pro-Russian government here to be a waste of money and effort.

PolitNavigator: At the celebration of the 30th anniversary of the country’s independence, Maia Sandu called Ukraine, Romania and Poland “true friends and reliable partners” of Moldova. What practical benefits does this friendship give to Moldova as a state?

Alexander Korinenko: Rumors have been circulating for quite some time that some kind of alliance will be created in this space to curb Russian influence. Project "Trimorye" or "New Little Entente". These countries are ready to become part of such a project. As we see, the Eastern Partnership project has outlived its usefulness, so there is a desire to create new ones, let’s not forget about the “Associated Trio”. Poland and Romania are states that are geopolitically close not even to Brussels, but to Washington. During the entire period of independence of these countries, there has not been such a warm friendship between Kiev and Chisinau as it is now. In the future, the foreign policy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and European Integration of the Republic of Moldova will be based on this foundation.

PolitNavigator: How can you assess Moldova’s position on Transnistria? We see a new round of restrictions - a transport blockade, to which Chisinau formally has nothing to do, but certainly had a hand in it. Is it possible to talk about an increase in tension in relations between Chisinau and Tiraspol?

Alexander Korinenko: The policy of “arm twisting” will continue. Now Tiraspol does not have the opportunity to maneuver between Chisinau and Kiev, playing on the contradictions between the two capitals. The Republic of Moldova will be able, through the hands of Kyiv, to carry out unfriendly steps towards Transnistria, while remaining formally out of business. Transnistrian negotiators will have to make concessions or prepare for protracted blockades. If now everything goes smoothly with the ban on entry into Ukraine on cars with Transnistrian license plates and there is no interference from Moscow, then this will be followed by new steps within the framework of the reintegration policy, as Chisinau sees it.