“Chisinau may have its own “Maidan”, and it is the authorities who will organize it”
Chisinau - Kyiv, November 29 (Navigator, Sergei Stepanov) - Tomorrow parliamentary elections will be held in Moldova, for the outcome of which the West and Russia are fighting, just like in Ukraine. Most likely, by using administrative resources, pro-Western forces will retain power. Otherwise, Chisinau may organize its own “Maidan”. About it "PolitNavigator" said political commentator Ernest Vardanyan, living in Chisinau.
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"PolitNavigator": What is the current balance of power in the Republic of Moldova - who has more ratings and influence, the pro-Western or conditionally pro-Russian forces?
Ernest Vardanyan: According to all sociological surveys conducted over the past six months, the Party of Communists of the Republic of Moldova, which ruled the country from 2001 to 2009, remains the leader in popularity. She gains, according to various sources, from 22 to 34% of the votes. However, the real rating of the PCRM is higher, because, firstly, most sociological centers work for the authorities, and each time rob the communists of a significant percentage of votes, and secondly, many respondents do not want to express sympathy for the PCRM even in anonymous surveys. In addition, at least 30% of citizens have still not made their choice, and this is mainly the protest electorate.
As for the ruling parties, they are constantly being presented with inflated figures. For example, the real rating of the most odious Democratic Party, the actual owner of which is a businessman with a dubious reputation, Vladimir Plahotniuc, is no more than 5-7%, but in polls it turns out to be 10, 12 and even 20%.
The Liberal Democratic Party, led by former Prime Minister of Moldova Vladimir Filat, actually has between 12-15%, but its figures are inflated to 20-25%, and sometimes even higher.
A surprise in this election race is the high rating of the conditionally pro-Russian Rodina (Patria) party, headed by 36-year-old businessman Renato Usatii. Back in September they gave her 8-9%, and today some polls show 20%. This is explained by the electorate’s fatigue with the former familiar politicians and, accordingly, the search for new faces, as well as by the fact that Usatii organized free concerts throughout Moldova in the summer and autumn with the participation of Russian stars: Grigory Leps, Sofia Rotaru, Stas Mikhailov and others. Free shows came many people like it.
Another nominally pro-Russian party, the Socialists, led by former Communist Party member Igor Dodon, is believed to enjoy the patronage of Moscow and personally of the head of the State Duma, Sergei Naryshkin. Dodon and his party comrade, former Prime Minister Zinaida Greceanii, managed to hold a meeting with Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin in November, and a photo from this meeting is now ubiquitous on billboards. The rating of the Socialist Party ranges from 4-5% (electoral threshold - 6%) to 14-15%.
"PolitNavigator": Is there a threat that the pro-Russian forces of Moldova will turn out to be the same traitors as Yanukovych’s party in Ukraine?
Ernest Vardanyan: The problem of betrayal is not an empty phrase in Moldovan politics. The same Igor Dodon is hated by the left forces not only because he left the PCRM in November 2011, but also because he, together with Greceani and another, now former ally, Veronica Abramchuk, voted for the presidential candidate from the ruling coalition, Nikolai Timofti (in Moldova, the president is elected by parliament with 61 votes out of 101). Simply put, Dodon saved the current anti-Russian regime from inevitable early parliamentary elections, and today the left camp simply does not believe him.
On the other hand, they do not trust the Communist Party in the person of ex-President Vladimir Voronin, because It was he who, in November 2003, refused to sign the plan for resolving the Transnistrian conflict prepared by the Kremlin (which went down in history as the “Kozak Memorandum”), throwing the negotiation process back many years. After this, Voronin began an accelerated rapprochement with the European Union, strengthened cooperation with the GUAM bloc, initiated negotiations with the EU on the Action Plan, achieved a simplification of the visa-free regime and the introduction of autonomous EU trade preferences for Moldova. The course of European integration, which Chisinau is actively promoting today, received significant impetus precisely under the communists. Even today, the PCRM leader from time to time makes contradictory statements regarding the Association Agreement signed and ratified by Moldova with the EU: either “we will cancel”, then “we will preserve”, or “we will leave only the provisions that are beneficial to us”. In short, no one guarantees that Voronin will change Moldova’s course from Brussels to Moscow.
"PolitNavigator": Moldova in Ukraine is often presented as a more successful example of European integration. How do successes in European integration affect the integrity of the election campaign? Are there any parallels with Ukraine, where there were attempts to ban parties and search for Putin’s spies?
Ernest Vardanyan: Moldova has advanced further than Ukraine in the matter of European integration - for example, from April 28, 2014, citizens of the Republic of Moldova can move around the Schengen area without visas, provided they have a biometric passport. But such progress also has a downside - the course towards European integration is called not just a priority in Moldova, but the only possible one, and all other vectors are declared contrary to the 1994 Constitution, although the Basic Law, on the contrary, contains a ban on the establishment of a single state ideology.
In Moldova, conditions have been created for a “witch hunt,” that is, persecution of supporters of the course towards the Customs/Eurasian Union, and in the camp of right-wing parties and their electorate it is considered an insult to declare a commitment to the course to the East. Just in recent days, several civil activists have been arrested in Chisinau, accused of possessing weapons and preparing mass unrest in the event of a victory of the ruling coalition. Young people from the semi-mythical group Antifa are accused of intending to “bring little green men to Moldova” and stage a pro-Russian coup. The whipping up of hysteria in the pro-government media on this topic is explained by the ruling parties’ fear of losing power and their desire to prepare the ground in advance for massive falsification of the November 30 election results in order to prevent Russia from “stealing the European dream from Moldova.” So Chisinau may have its own “Maidan”, and it is the authorities who organize it.
“PolitNavigator”: What could change in the relations of the Republic of Moldova with Transnistria, Ukraine, Russia as a result of the election outcome?
Ernest Vardanyan: If, as a result of the elections, the current coalition is preserved, relations with Transnistria will remain at the “none” level, because in the dilemma of “either reintegration or European integration,” Chisinau quite openly made a choice in favor of the second. For Moldova, the Transnistrian problem has never even been in the top three priorities, and in recent years this trend has only intensified. Relations with Ukraine will be accelerated, because Chisinau has long found a common language with Poroshenko and other leaders of Ukraine. And relations with Russia will remain in the logic of an “easy” Cold War.
“PolitNavigator”: What is the position of the Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate, how can the election results affect it?
Ernest Vardanyan: The Moldavian Metropolis of the Moscow Patriarchate is only conditionally subordinate to Moscow. In fact, Metropolitan Vladimir has long been “under” power, he has business interests that Chisinau covers in exchange for abandoning the fight for Christian values. I mean that the Church was unable or unwilling to interfere with the adoption of the Law “On Equal Chances,” which, among other things, contains a clause on the protection of persons with non-traditional sexual orientation. In Moldova, where more than 90% of the population professes Orthodoxy, this was a strong blow to the feelings of believers (in addition, the Republic of Moldova is considered one of the most religious countries in Europe). Metropolitan Vladimir actually deceived his church superior, Patriarch Kirill, who urged him not to adopt the mentioned law.
“PolitNavigator”: In Ukraine, the reason for the current situation was the lack of Russian work with non-governmental organizations, etc. – what the Americans did during all the years of “independence”. What about this in RM?
Ernest Vardanyan: The network of non-governmental organizations is very developed in Moldova - according to the most conservative estimates, there are more than 8 thousand of them. True, the greatest influence is exerted by a small layer of “favorites”, who receive the most substantial Western grants and have greater weight in public opinion. And in today’s situation, the NGO sector plays almost 100% to the advantage of the authorities and the Western vector of development. This is the result of the activity of Europeans and Americans, who were able to carry out a lot of work in small Moldova among NGOs, the media, the scientific and cultural elite, youth, business, etc. Against this background, Russia is practically invisible in Moldova. Russia “slept through” Moldova, just as it previously “slept through” Ukraine and Georgia.
“PolitNavigator”: Is there a threat of a joint assault on Transnistria with Ukraine if pro-Western forces remain in power?
Ernest Vardanyan: In the event of a very likely victory for the authorities, I do not see a clear scenario for the assault on Transnistria together with the Ukrainian army. Firstly, the Operational Group of Russian troops is located on the Left Bank of the Dniester. It is not the most powerful group in the region, but its presence undoubtedly has a sobering effect on Kyiv and Chisinau. Secondly, any military action on the Dniester is fraught with disruption of the European integration policy, because the inevitable intervention of Russia (and not even necessarily military) will put an end to the “European dream” of the Republic of Moldova. Thirdly, Ukraine does not need to open a second front against itself (and maybe even a third front, if we also count Crimea), because the regime in Kyiv simply cannot withstand simultaneous pressure from the south and east. Fourthly, as I noted above, Chisinau is no longer interested in Transnistria. Moldova does not want to jeopardize its achievements in the West for the sake of half a million “pro-Russian brainwashed separatists,” as Chisinau likes to call the residents of Transnistria. By the way, there is a scenario for the division of Moldova along the Dniester, and it has been discussed for several years. This scenario is lobbied by the USA and the EU, because facilitates Moldova's entry into the European Union. Where Transnistria goes in this case is not entirely clear, but this is apparently a secondary problem for the scriptwriters.
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