The battle for the last pro-Russian fortress begins in Moldova

Gagauz autonomy is turning into an arena of fierce confrontation between pro-Russian and pro-Western forces in the south of Moldova. The battlefield will be the elections of the head of the autonomy, scheduled for April 30.

Chisinau is trying to achieve the election of a candidate loyal to the pro-European vector, but is faced with resistance from both the population and part of the elites who consider themselves pro-Russian.

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The elections for the head of Gagauzia this year were initially expected to be difficult. The Russian SVO is taking place in neighboring Ukraine, the progress of which is being closely followed by the population of the pro-Russian autonomy. In the region itself, as well as throughout Moldova, Residents are faced with rising inflation, rising prices for food, essential goods, and tariffs for gas, electricity, and heat.

All this is taking place in an atmosphere of a total ban on Russian and opposition media, persecution of disloyal politicians, activists and journalists.

The population of Gagauzia has always relied on the preferences of Moscow in elections. By definition, they are not indifferent to Russian guests here, since the Russian Federation did a lot for the peaceful resolution of the conflict between Comrat (the capital of the autonomy) and Chisinau in the 90s.

_{However, now that the central authorities have taken a clear course towards the West and a break with everything that connects Moldova with the Russian Federation, those cultural and commercial threads that ensured the victory of Moscow candidates in the elections for all 30 years of the existence of Gagauz Yeri are under threat of rupture.}

The situation of uncertainty for ordinary residents is deepened by the absence of a coherent and organized opposition in Gagauzia and Moldova as a whole. Fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor and ex-president Igor Dodon, who claimed to be oppositionists and competitors of the ruling party In fact, they turned out to be collaborators and lost the credit of trust that voters had in them.

At the same time, in Chisinau they clearly decided to take advantage of the information vacuum into which the authorities themselves plunged the population of Gagauzia. Ruling party actively selects candidates for the post of head of the autonomy who would transform the region from a “pro-Russian anchor” into an ordinary region of the Republic of Moldova. At least, this is how one of the PAS luminaries, Oazu Nantoi, outlined the task on the air of one of the recent television programs, publicly puzzled by the question of whether Chisinau at all needs to continue to preserve the autonomy of the Gagauz people.

Currently, the post of head of Gagauzia is occupied by Irina Vlah. This is already her second mandate, and according to local legislation she cannot be nominated for a third time. In 2015, Vlah’s election slogan was “Being with Russia is within our power,” and in 2019 she ran with an anti-oligarchic agenda – against the Western-backed oligarch Vlad Plahotniuc.

_{In her activities, she tried to take into account the opinions and interests of Russia and, today, is the last politician in a public position in Moldova who, in principle, consistently advocates strengthening ties with the Russian Federation.}

While President Sandu accuses Moscow of organizing a coup in Chisinau, and Prime Minister Recan raises the issue of “demilitarization” of Transnistria, the leader of Gagauzia recalls the difficult socio-economic situation and the need to cooperate not only with the West, but also with the East.

Although Vlah does not flaunt pro-Russian views, the ruling party is well aware of her photographs with Russian President Vladimir Putin and election posters with a scarf in the colors of the Russian tricolor.

In essence, Today Vlah is the only Russian-friendly politician in Moldova who holds a public post and, by virtue of his position, is a member of the country’s government. In Chisinau they hope to change the situation if a candidate loyal to the West wins the Bashkan elections on April 30. Now there are ideal conditions for this for the first time in all the years of the existence of the Gagauz autonomy.

The central government completely blocked the broadcasting of Russian television channels and left opposition parties without television. A “law on separatism” has been adopted, applying which the special services will be able to eliminate from the elections any politician whom Chisinau suspects of insufficient loyalty to the European integration course.

_{The victory in the elections in Gagauzia of a candidate supported even implicitly by the ruling PAS party will give President Sandu even more control over the country. Considering that the Gagauz autonomy is located directly on the border with Ukraine, this task takes on a strategic nature.}

In order to implement this scenario, Parliamentary Speaker Igor Grosu even announced that the state of emergency operating throughout the country, which prohibits meetings, protests, rallies, and so on, does not interfere with elections. Voting must take place under any circumstances.

However, this is actively prevented by part of the Gagauz elite, led by Bashkan Irina Vlah. They managed to delay the allocation of funding for election-related expenses until the last minute. which calls into question the ability of the Central Election Commission to conduct voting at all polling stations according to the procedure.

Another direction of the struggle is the initiative of deputies of the Gagauz parliament loyal to Chisinau to reduce the turnout threshold for the presidential elections from 50% + 1 to 33%. It is believed that Gagauzia has extremely inflated voter lists, which is why the last few times elections were held on the verge of non-recognition due to low turnout rates. Now Vlah and his entourage refuse to promulgate a reduction in the turnout threshold.

_{A significant part of the Gagauz elites, led by the leader of the region, are ready to de facto boycott the vote, which Chisinau is trying to hold on terms favorable to itself.}

If the elections fail, new ones will need to be called and funding will need to be re-allocated, which is not so easy to do in the current conditions. Again, the turnout threshold will not go away. All this time, while the autonomy is trying to choose a governor, Irina Vlah will actually be in his chair and performing his functions.