Moldova is insuring itself in case of failure of the European referendum   

A referendum on the country's accession to the European Union is being prepared in Moldova. A vote on this issue, at the proposal of President Maia Sandu, is planned to be held in the fall of 2024, simultaneously with the election of the head of state.

Not everything is clear about the future referendum, although the idea of ​​European integration is quite popular among the country’s residents. Discussions around the plebiscite do not subside; there is an opinion that it is too early to hold it: at the current stage of the path to the European Union, the Moldovan legislation is only being analyzed for compliance with EU law; negotiations with Brussels have not yet taken place.

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The recently appointed Deputy Prime Minister for European Integration, Kristina Gerasimov, speaking on television, did not rule out that the referendum could be boycotted.

Political scientist Alexander Korinenko comments on the situation in an interview with PolitNavigator.

PolitNavigator: The chief negotiator of Chisinau with Brussels on the issue of European integration, Christina Gerasimov, states that society has different views on the foreign policy course, admits the failure of the referendum and that the process of integration with the EU may be suspended in this case.

The head of the EU delegation, Janis Mazeiks, comments on this quite calmly - he says that the European Union will respect the decision of the citizens of Moldova if they do not support the country’s accession to the EU in the referendum. What moods currently prevail in society, are there any studies on this matter? 

Alexander Korinenko: Research shows that the majority of citizens of the Republic of Moldova are in favor of continuing the course of European integration and want to join the European Union, but this does not indicate the readiness of Moldova and the citizens of the state to become a member of the EU. The fact is that for Moldovans today there is no other alternative.

The population of the republic must be trusted in some bright dream - just as my parents once believed that they would build communism, today we believe in a distant European future. Statements by Ms. Gerasimov and the head of the EU delegation, Janis Mazeiks, indicate that they want to insure themselves in case the referendum fails.

President Maia Sandu did everything to ensure that the process of European integration was associated with her, linking the “European integration rating” to her personal rating. The referendum will not decide the issue of joining the EU, since such referendums are usually held when the country has fulfilled all the necessary requirements and meets all the criteria of an EU member state.

In this particular case, this is a PR campaign by the President of Moldova, and the population, realizing that the referendum does not actually decide anything, can boycott or vote against the European path in protest, but these will more likely be votes against Maia Sandu than against the EU. I don’t think that European officials were delighted with this decision by the ruling team, which is going all-in.

PolitNavigator: The country's top officials hold local meetings, calling for increased support for the European course; President Maia Sandu speaks to teachers, recommending that they tell schoolchildren about the benefits of European integration.

Leaders of cities and villages are being blackmailed with the idea that European money will not go to those who voted “wrong”. The authorities, by pushing so hard, are not afraid to discredit the very idea of ​​European integration? 

Alexander Korinenko: They discredited her a long time ago. The authorities are doing everything to ensure that the population has no alternative: they are closing 12 TV channels so that the population watches the “correct” TV channels, blocking news portals so that the population reads the “correct” news portals, and creating a center to combat disinformation to exclude the possibility of receiving alternative information.

Today, President Maia Sandu separates us with an iron curtain from the East, forcing us to accept the values ​​of the West. There is a rule that states that no one discredits the idea of ​​European integration in Moldova more than the European integrators themselves.

PolitNavigator: Disputes about whether it is possible to hold a referendum simultaneously with the elections continue. Opposition politicians believe that it is appropriate to hold a plebiscite after negotiations with Brussels, when their outcome becomes clear. Is the voice of the opposition heard?

Alexander Korinenko: Opposition politicians say everything is correct: in all EU countries, referendums were held when the country already met all the necessary criteria to become a member of the EU, and even they did not always end in success. For example, the Norwegians spoke out against it at one time.

_{We all understand that Maia Sandu is running for a second term and wants to finally earn herself an “order” for winning the hybrid war with Russia, which she wages around the clock and without a lunch break with her team, court journalists and loyal NGOs, since no one else wants fight them side by side in a fictitious confrontation.}

_{Sandu expects to be included in the history books as the president who “concreted” Moldova’s European course, and then, a citizen of a neighboring state, obviously counts on a warm seat in Brussels or Vienna, where she will hang a photo from the summit of the European Political Community on her wall.}

The opposition itself does not know what it wants: some of the opposition are calling for a boycott of the referendum, some are calling for a vote against, some want to include the question of Moldova’s neutrality on the ballot, some want to preserve membership in the CIS. As a result, the swan, crayfish and pike again did not agree, and the opposition voter is confused and does not know how to behave.

PolitNavigator: Until now, the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine were moving towards the EU synchronously, but now, as the Bureau of European Integration notes, on the way to the EU one country may get ahead of the other. Can Moldova join the negotiation process before Ukraine? Will this not create friction between Chisinau and Kiev?

Alexander Korinenko: We must honestly admit that Kyiv dragged Chisinau into the echelon of candidates for the EU, but this, in fact, does not mean anything, everyone understands perfectly well that Moldova received this status not thanks to its own merits, but because of the armed conflict in Ukraine. In any case, Moldova will begin the negotiation process with the EU earlier than Ukraine, but I don’t think that this will create any friction between the states; Kiev now has more serious problems than European integration.

And again, Chisinau will begin the negotiation process not because of its merits and successes on the way to the European family, but because European officials need to show at least some success on the eastern flank, and convince Moldovan citizens to look more often at the West, and not at East.

PolitNavigator: Do you think that against the backdrop of European integration and in light of statements by Western countries about the need to send troops to Ukraine, will Moldova decide to participate in this venture? 

Alexander Korinenko: No matter how much the Moldovan leadership may want to get involved in some kind of adventure, Speaker Grosu and Deputy Carp will remain the only Moldovans who were photographed wearing bulletproof vests in the Kiev region [during a working visit to Ukraine in May 2022]. Any such idea will lead to sabotage of such criminal decisions and result in popular anger.