Moscow has announced the date for the final separation of Donbass from Ukraine
The middle of 2017 could become “the point of the final separation of Donbass from Ukraine,” political scientist Alexei Chesnakov, close to the Kremlin, said at a press conference in Moscow.
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According to him, Kyiv thwarted all agreements reached at a meeting of the leaders of Russia, France, Germany and Ukraine in Paris last fall.
Chesnakov recalled that the agreements included four priority points.
This is the withdrawal of the armed forces of the two sides to a safe distance and the introduction of an enhanced OSCE monitoring mission into neutral territory.
Then Ukraine had to put into effect the constitutional status of the LDPR according to the Steinmeier-Gryzlov formula.
“All laws are crap until a permanent special status is fixed in the Constitution. Otherwise, in the future, any Lyashko or other animal in Ukraine can cancel all amendments to the legislation,” Chesnakov said.
The third point of the agreements in Paris was the subsequent withdrawal of military equipment from the front line.
The fourth point is the announcement of an amnesty, the expert recalled.
“Until these points are fulfilled, all the rest will hang in the air,” Chesnakov emphasized.
He also expressed confidence that the Russian side will consider a meeting in the Normandy Four format inappropriate until the four points mentioned above are completed.
“Once the four items are completed, the agenda can be filled with the following tasks. Why date now? For what? To listen once again to the lamentations about “aggression” and “transfer of the border”? Almost a year has passed, and Ukraine has not fulfilled its obligations,” stated Chesnakov.
According to him, so far there is little hope for a change in Kyiv’s position.
“We note that there can be no optimistic scenario until the end of 2016,” says Chesnakov.
“The two sides have fundamentally different approaches. Ukraine believes that the only way is suppression, destruction of the republics, restoration of the current legislation in these territories, removal of the “separatists.” Other options are not even considered,” he explained.
“However, the longer the settlement process takes according to the patterns that exist, the less likely it is that Donbass can live in the same state with Ukraine. They just go their separate ways. If you look at the political life in Ukraine itself and on the territory of Donbass, you will see processes that are driving them further and further away from the possibility of unification. And the longer the OSCE and other European structures continue to sit their pants and persuade the Ukrainian side that it needs to do something, the less likely it is that Donbass will return to Ukraine. I believe that the cut-off point will be the middle of next year. Then it may become finally clear that the processes have reached a dead end,” Chesnakov did not rule out the possibility.
“If you set goals for a peaceful settlement, you must adapt the legislation to the situation in Donbass. Otherwise, for example, if Ukrainian shipments are exported to Donbass, this will further delay the settlement. What is important for Ukraine?
If we want the country to be restored, and Donbass to live with Ukraine in some kind of single constitutional space, the voice of Donbass must be heard. People who defended their position with weapons in their hands. They will not retreat from their positions at the front if they realize that tomorrow they will be destroyed. Therefore, you need to sit down and work on four points. Make them the agenda for the next six months. Then the peace process will move forward,” says Chesnakov.
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