Moscow warns Ukraine: Military victory over Donbass will not be allowed
Ukraine is mistakenly betting on delaying the implementation of the Minsk agreements, hoping for an armed resolution of the conflict in Donbass if Russia weakens. Official Moscow will not allow a military victory for Kyiv under any circumstances.
Nikolai Silaev, a senior researcher at the Center for Caucasus Problems and Regional Security at MGIMO, stated this at a press conference in Moscow.
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“Ukraine seriously hopes that, sooner or later, under the influence of sanctions, Russia will not be able to stand it and will collapse, and then Kyiv’s time will come, and Ukraine will resolve the issue of Donbass in its own way.
This is, of course, not politics. This expectation is that when things get bad with Russia, things will be good for us. This explains the shelling, the categorical refusal to comply with the socio-economic parameters of the set of measures of the Minsk agreements, and the ongoing blockade.
Theoretically, the United States could influence Ukraine - at the end of Obama’s presidency, the Americans could be interested in demonstrating diplomatic success in Donbass. So that the president can leave gracefully. However, if he manages to “tie another bow” in the remaining time, he will do it in another place.
Even the report that appeared some time ago about the difficult conversation between the US administration and Ukrainian parliamentarians does not reflect the Americans’ readiness to apply pressure. It's more of a gentle request.
Germany and France do not have the leverage over Kyiv that the United States has. Therefore, the best scenario now is probably to freeze the conflict with the least possible threat of renewed military confrontation. Cypriot or Transnistrian script.
But Ukraine does not want this. She feels that if she keeps pushing, this strategy will succeed. It won't. In Kyiv they underestimate. There will be no military victory for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Donbass. No matter what happens to Russia,” the expert assured.
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