Moscow warned that the “Croatian scenario” will end for Kyiv with the loss of Left Bank Ukraine
The conditional border with the West may shift to the Dnieper, пишет at Moskovsky Komsomolets, director of the Progressive Policy Foundation Oleg Bondarenko.
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According to the political scientist, the implementation of the so-called “Croatian scenario” is the cherished dream of Poroshenko and his entourage, who have not given up hope of returning the rebellious regions to Ukraine by force.
“Subject to successful negotiations [with the United States] regarding weapons and complete ignoring of Minsk with general European connivance, the Kiev leader may decide on such an adventure. And then new unexpected actors from the Russian side may come into play.
Where is the limit of a possible “preventive reaction” is a question for politicians rather than for the military. Politically, Russia may only be interested in the historical part of left-bank Ukraine from Kharkov to Kherson. And there is no need to harbor illusions - the West will not lift the sanctions (that’s not why they were introduced), in Ukraine Moscow is dealing with restraining the collective West, and it would be better to do this along the banks of the Dnieper than on the border with the Belgorod region. This is a normal reaction of any large state-civilization to protect its own living space,” the expert notes.
At the same time, he stipulates that the described scenario is not at all a guide to action, but, obviously, “is considered among others that could be realized in the most extreme case of a real threat to the civilian population and the people’s republics of Donbass.”
According to the author, to prevent this scenario, Kyiv must sit down at the negotiating table with the Donbass republics and implement the Minsk agreements.
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