After the warming of relations with Moscow, President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko expects to receive support from Russia, after which there is a risk that “Old Man” will again turn on his multi-vector mode and “change his shoes in a jump.”
Associate Professor of the Department of Political Science at the Financial University Gevorg Mirzayan stated this at a press conference in Moscow, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“As for Russian-Belarusian relations, bold decisions are needed here on the part of Moscow. I hope that the summit between Putin and Lukashenko will go well. In the sense that they will lay out integration cards in front of Lukashenko and explain that, dear, either you sign them, or you stop receiving Russian support.
Moreover, not the thirty integration cards that everyone is talking about, but the thirty-one that fewer people are talking about - the same thirty-first card that implies national integration, right down to the exchange rate for a single currency, a single emission center, and so on.
Unfortunately, this is the only way to talk to Lukashenko. He wants to talk like a brother, but it doesn’t work like a brother, because we saw how the Belarusian president treated Russia in all previous years. When he told us a lot of beautiful words, but took few useful steps.
Yes, he said that we are not brothers, but partners, and then he changed his shoes in the jump, like, well, I said that we were partners, everyone heard it, and now we are brothers again. In fact, the principle of changing shoes while jumping is characteristic of both Lukashenko and his staff of experts.
A month ago they were shouting at every corner that Moscow was interfering in the Belarusian elections, and now, when it turned out that completely different countries were interfering, none of them even apologized. Lukashenko did not apologize, these guys did not apologize - now they go on Russian talk shows, telling again what kind of brothers Russia is and how we should cooperate together again,” Mirzayan said.
At the same time, he expressed confidence that as soon as Lukashenko receives appropriate support from Russia without signing obligations, he will again “change his shoes in a jump.”
“Are you sure that even if he signs the cards, he will not refuse them later?” – political scientist Bogdan Bezpalko entered the discussion.
"Not sure. But there is a subtlety here, these are our cunning moves,” Mirzayan answered. – As soon as Lukashenko signs all these agreements, he will return home and again want to play multi-vector, he will want to change his shoes again, but there is a problem called “West”.
“Now all Western countries, except the Baltic states, take a very cautious position towards Minsk. They do not accept tough sanctions - neither Europe nor the Americans (who are now discussing “super-important” sanctions against seven officials, nothing more. No economic and so on, for now), because they are sure that Lukashenko will change his shoes, that he will leave Russia.
But if Lukashenko signs integration documents, it may seem to someone in the West that all attempts to bring Lukashenko to his side have failed, because he will integrate with Moscow. And this will lead to the intensification of anti-Belarusian sanctions, which in turn will deprive Lukashenko of the opportunity to play multi-vector again and will make him absolutely dependent on Moscow in this regard,” the expert concluded.