Moscow predicts a protracted meat grinder in Ukraine: the meeting in Minsk will not stop it
Kyiv, August 20 (Navigator, Yuri Kovalchuk) – One should not expect breakthroughs from the meeting of Vladimir Putin and Petro Poroshenko on August 26 in Minsk, said the head of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy Fyodor Lukyanov, the Kommersant newspaper reports.
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“You shouldn’t expect a breakthrough. Everyone wants an end to hostilities. But stopping them before a scheme of package agreements on a whole range of issues is formulated - from gas to Crimea (so that Kiev, if not de jure, then de facto, stops pushing this topic in exchange for economic assistance), does not seem realistic,” - said Lukyanov.
The expert believes that the situation in Ukraine is reminiscent of Bosnia.
“Combat operations at the front and political negotiations do not contradict, but complement each other; the parties are trying to turn the situation around militarily in order to strengthen their positions in the negotiations,” says Fyodor Lukyanov. “That’s why the idea of a ‘ceasefire first’ does not work - first you need to fix compromise".
According to the expert’s forecast, “the meat grinder will continue, without being an obstacle to the negotiation process.” In order to agree on package agreements that could end the conflict, the parties, in his opinion, need to “make super efforts.” Mr. Lukyanov considers the Berlin meeting of four ministers and the new negotiating format in Minsk to be a sign that movement in this direction has begun, indicating, in his words, that “the Customs Union is beginning to act as a neutral political force.” “However, Moscow and Kyiv will not be able to come to an agreement just once or twice,” the political scientist is convinced.
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