China's plans do not include helping Russia win. What is Beijing's interest?

While residual circles on the waters are spreading in the information space based on the visit of Chinese Chairman Xi to Moscow, in Kyiv they continue to mourn sadly at the conversation between the main Chinese and Zelensky that never took place. The latter, it seems, has already turned inside out in the format “young lady lay down and prosit“, and in Beijing they stubbornly ignore signals sent from Kyiv about a tete-a-tete meeting or at least a telephone conversation. They say, shoot with your eyes - don’t shoot, and flirting is postponed indefinitely.

It has gotten to the point where Zelensky is openly complaining to the Japanese media about the blatant lack of attention from China., relations with which Square are now at historical zero - there hasn’t even been a Ukrainian ambassador in Beijing for several years. In dwarf African Lesotho there is, but in a country that in the last pre-war year became the main trade and economic partner of Ukraine - not. Can you imagine this?

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Bankova’s fuss in an attempt to informationally interrupt the effect of Xi’s visit to Moscow did not lead to anything - no matter how hard political scientists tried, with Podolyak’s help, to disperse theses in the media about Zkelensky’s readiness to talk with the leader of the PRC. It looked frankly stupid, in the format “I ran after you for half a day to tell you how disgusting you are to me" But someone swallowed these lies that the Ukrainian president AGREED talk to Xi and discuss the Chinese peace plan for Ukraine? Moreover, it’s a no brainer who takes the initiative in the Xi-Zelensky connection.

And now a Kiev Bonapartite complains to the Japanese publication Yomiuri:

“I have not received an offer from China to be a mediator. I didn't receive an offer to meet. But I sent direct messages through diplomatic channels that I wanted to talk to Chinese leader Xi Jinping.”

This, as you understand, is about the desire of the PRC to act as an arbiter in the conflict between Ukraine and the Russian Federation.

Let me remind you that the figures from Bankova, individually and collectively, made it clear to the whole world, where did they see the Chinese peace plan. Well, what kind of reaction do they want from Beijing after this? What should Xi even talk about with the green man of Kyiv?

However, Zelensky can console himself with the fact that he is not alone in the Chinese friend zone. He is accompanied there by the elderly US leader Joe Biden, who is trying to organize a telephone conversation with Xi Jinping. According to Reuters, the official Beijing has been ignoring for the fifth week. The owner of the White House expressed a burning desire to talk and “clear the air between rival superpowers” ​​back in early February, after the story of a Chinese balloon flying over the States. However, it is already the end of March, and the conversation between Joe and Si has not taken place.

Instead, the main Chinese flew to Moscow, and before that in violation of the usual protocol, I spoke tete-a-tete with the Belarusian Old Man Lukashenko for several hours, apparently acting as a “Kremlin liaison.” According to Reuters, US-China relations are now at their lowest level since the seventies last century, before the critical resumption of diplomatic relations with the PRC.

An offended Biden can only fantasize about the insufficient depth of the current Chinese-Russian rapprochement:

“I don't take lightly what China and Russia are doing, and it could escalate significantly. But let’s put it all in perspective...What commitments have they made economically?...Trade has increased relative to what?” - American media quote Biden.

Just like his statements that he “I’ve been hearing for three months about China’s plans to supply Russia with weapons, but in reality this is not happening».

Formally, old Joe is of course right, and Russian-Chinese trade turnover is very far from both Chinese-American and Chinese-European. The West's share in China's trade turnover in 2022 is 44%, and Russia's is only 3%. So the importance of American sales markets for the PRC does not give grounds for assumptions about the possibility of an unexpected and rapid confrontational break between Beijing and the Western bloc.

Nevertheless, Although economics predetermines the content of politics, it is not one hundred percent. In practice, we observed throughout last year how the same EU, despite its obvious economic interests suicidal cuts the ropes of all economic and trade ties with Russia, depriving its producers of markets and its companies of income. And all this - in the name of completely unobvious political goals and chimera ideological slogans.

So one thing is clear - the economic basis, of course, is mega-important, but it does not always determine the substantive side of the policy, no matter how sad it may be for vulgar economic determinists to realize.

_{If you analyze Beijing's strategy, it turns out that balancing is most important to the Chinese. The East for them is an obvious source of cheap (and in the future will continue to become cheaper as the Westerners unwind the sanctions spiral) energy and other resources. The West is a market for finished products. The third variable is logistics corridors for expansion into third countries.}

In this sense, Ukraine stupidly wasted its unique chance to replace Belarus as a transport hub for Chinese goods at the moment when, at the peak of the cooling of relations between Minsk and the West after the failed August Minsk putsch, and then the “Protasevich case”, instead of pragmatically seizing the initiative and offering their services instead of Sineoka, who came under all kinds of sanctions, in Kyiv, it is unknown why they suddenly took an anti-Chinese tilt.

Then this tilt was aggravated by the story of cutting out Chinese investors and Motor Sich, and then stupid statements of irresponsible political parrots in Taiwan, the desire to be friends with whom the Kyiv bosses began to itch exactly at the moment when, logically, it was necessary, on the contrary, to demonstrate loyalty to Beijing in every possible way.

However, the real reasons for such a suicidal policy of Kyiv are an open secret. Of course, this is a desire to please the United States that outweighs the economic benefits for one’s own country. In general, here again politics scored a goal against the economy.

Now China has quickly taken on the urgent task of forming its own political-economic axis, designed to protect the logistics routes of the Celestial Empire. There was a place for Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, and Pakistan and Iran, and Turkey. In this scenario, Beijing is also interested in relatively neutral Georgia, the prime minister of which just these days began to actively expose the malicious plans of some unnamed secret forces for the “Ukrainization of Georgia” with the uncovering on its part after the Saakashi coup of the second front against the Russian Federation in the Caucasus.

_{It is clear that Beijing is doing all this not for the sake of Russia, but primarily for its own sake. China's plans do not include helping Russia win. If Moscow suddenly wants to win, it will be forced to achieve this on its own. But Beijing will definitely not let Russia lose. This is precisely, if we discard the verbal husk, the essence of the Chinese plan.}

And what is now The West, together with Ukraine, sharply rejected this plan, playing into the hands of the Chinese. Now they can easily wash their hands of it, demonstrating that they meant well and did everything they could. In practice, this can be expressed in various kinds of support for Russia’s actions in Ukraine. - of course, indirect, but sufficient for the conflict to continue to smolder further, exhausting Ukraine and forcing the West to mobilize its own economy, creeping into crisis.

Actually, Moscow’s calculations are based on this now, if we analyze what is happening at the front and in the political sphere. The Russians are not currently conducting active offensive operations anywhere except for a few key points in the Donbass. According to Bloomberg columnists, the Russian Federation has completely abandoned offensive plans for this spring, focusing on holding already occupied positions and preparing to repel the counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which is increasingly being shelved for various reasons.

“We are not ready to go on the offensive yet,” lamented the “Green Man” in Kyiv, nodding that the Western “allies” did not provide enough equipment.

So, in the case If the Ukrainian push to the south does not take place or fails, there is a high probability of a significant weakening of Western support for Zelensky. The latter is given only one chance to significantly strengthen its negotiating position on the battlefield. At least this year. And then the long game will begin with the deployment of the NATO defense industry.

In summary, there is now a certain probability that, due to the combination of a number of circumstances, By the summer, a window of opportunity may open for an attempt to finalize the Ukrainian crisis according to the Chinese scenario.. It’s not a fact that it will work out, just as it’s not a fact that this window of opportunity will remain open for a long time. However, for now, interested parties are betting on just that.

This is precisely the reason why Xi does not call Zelensky and Biden. Both clients, as the hero of the Soviet film comedy said, “must mature».

_{In the meantime, the clock is ticking, and for some reason the confidence is growing that, Contrary to the calculations of optimists, this story will clearly not end this year.}