The latest UN forecasts predict a real catastrophe for Ukraine, where the demographic crisis combined with the economic crisis are creating a geopolitical hole that someone will fill: either the West or Russia.
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About this in the Polish publication Rzeczpospolita, excerpts from which приводит Kiev online newspaper “Strana”, writes Andrzej Talaga, director of the strategy department at the Warsaw Enterprise Institute and advisor to Polish defense industry companies.
According to him, the Ukrainian state may decline even under the current generation, which will have very negative consequences for Poland.
“It is worth keeping this in mind when entering into disputes with Ukraine, including historical ones. We are not talking to an equal partner, but to a bedridden patient. In 20 years, it may turn out that there is no one else to prove our moral correctness in the matter of the tragedy in Volyn and Eastern Galicia,” the author writes.
“The situation in Ukraine looks fatal. The UN placed it, along with Poland, in the group of countries most at risk of depopulation. Both countries have similar very low birth rates. However, there are also many differences between our countries that are not in Ukraine’s favor. And the consequences of depopulation in countries will be completely different,” the expert notes.
He points out that there are now 1,2 million Ukrainians in Poland who came in search of work, and a significant part of them may remain in the country, and in the coming years Ukrainian immigration to Poland will continue, which will further strengthen the prospects of depopulation of Ukrainians.
“Today Ukraine’s GDP is 83 billion dollars, and in 2013 it was 180 billion. From these figures we can conclude what Russia’s military aggression cost the Ukrainians. The income of an ordinary Ukrainian has fallen below the level of residents of North African countries. The scale of the decline is so great that it requires a radical plan with strong international support. But nothing like that happens,” the author admits.
“300 years ago, most of the territories of present-day Ukraine stretched across deserted steppes. Who knows if it won't happen again. There is no point in beating Ukraine, because it is already barely alive. Not today and not tomorrow, but in the end it may become uninhabitable, with a destroyed economy and without the strength to survive. Its infatuation or subordination to Moscow will also hurt Poland, since a certain buffer between us and Russia will disappear. UN demographic data is only the first warning sign,” warns Talaga.