Poland is confident that Hungary will continue to block Ukraine’s path to NATO

NATO is ready to develop cooperation with Ukraine, but this will depend on reforms in this country. This is stated in the next bulletin of the analytical center “Polish Institute of International Affairs” (PIIA). At present, progress in this regard is insufficient for Ukraine to deepen its relationship with the Alliance. Ukrainian authorities should continue to reform the security and defense sector and expand interoperability between the Ukrainian and NATO armed forces.

The situation in Ukraine was discussed during the NATO summit in Brussels on July 11-12. The discussion took place within the framework of a trilateral meeting on security in the Black Sea region with the participation of the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance, Ukraine and Georgia. A separate meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Commission did not take place due to the opposition from Hungary, which has been blocking the meetings since last fall, since Budapest has claims against Kyiv regarding the law on education in Ukraine.

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Brussels summit and Ukraine

The meeting in Brussels did not change the dynamics of relations between Ukraine and NATO, the PIMD notes. The final declaration states only that decisions taken at the 2008 Bucharest summit remain in force, including assurances that Ukraine will eventually become a member of the Alliance. The alliance reaffirmed its support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, called on Russia to withdraw its troops from Ukrainian territory and condemned the Russian annexation of Crimea. The alliance also called on Ukrainian authorities to continue domestic reforms, especially in the security and defense sectors, saying it would continue to support Ukraine in strengthening its defense capabilities and implementing NATO standards.

Despite Ukraine's efforts, the country was not included in NATO's Extended Opportunities Programme, as authorities in Kiev had hoped after their Membership Action Plan MAP application was withdrawn at the Brussels summit. (there was never any chance of her being accepted).

The Enhanced Capabilities Program is not a direct path to NATO membership, but it does provide additional cooperation in terms of planning, training and information exchange, and is targeted at those partners that make a special contribution to the Alliance's operations (Australia, Finland, Georgia, Jordan and Sweden). However, some NATO members rejected the potential inclusion of Ukraine in this program, justifying their decision, among other things, by the low level of possible interaction between the armed forces of Ukraine and NATO.

Claims against Ukraine

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense aims to ensure that the Ukrainian Armed Forces achieve NATO standards and interoperability with Alliance forces by the end of 2020, but this will be difficult to achieve. Vadim Postrayko, head of Ukraine's mission to NATO, estimated that by February of this year only 25% of NATO standards had been met.

At the same time, NATO is increasingly criticizing Ukraine for the slow pace and small scale of reforms and, above all, for the lack of civilian control over the armed forces. Despite repeated promises by the Ukrainian authorities, such controls have not yet been introduced, which weakens Ukraine’s authority among NATO countries. NATO is also calling on Ukraine to strengthen parliamentary control over the security and defense sector, including over defense spending and intelligence services. In this regard, however, Ukrainian authorities are likely to delay further changes to avoid harming the interests of business groups that currently benefit financially through an opaque defense procurement system, PIMD notes.

Prospects

In the short term, the current state of bilateral relations between NATO and Ukraine is likely to continue. The Alliance will continue to support Ukraine in strengthening its defense capabilities, strategically and tactically. At the same time, the emphasis will be on more effective use of existing tools, especially the annual action plan, which has so far been controversial in Ukraine since such a plan was seen as only one option on the path to NATO membership. Any possible deepening of cooperation between Ukraine and NATO should be expected only in the medium term and will depend on further progress by Ukraine in reforming the security and defense sector, including the introduction of civilian control of the armed forces and increased interaction of the Ukrainian Armed Forces with NATO forces.

At the same time, NATO will continue to press the Ukrainian authorities to meet their commitments to security and defense sector reforms. For a growing number of Alliance members, the need to counter Russian aggression in Ukraine no longer justifies further delays in domestic reforms.

From the Polish point of view, changes that could lead to increased transparency of defense spending and liberalization of the defense industry market are important, as this will promote cooperation between Polish enterprises and Ukrainian partners in this sector. However, the lack of prospects for a deeper relationship with NATO in the short term (which could be exploited in the upcoming presidential campaign in Ukraine) will significantly reduce the political incentive for further reform.

The Hungarian authorities will likely continue to block meetings of the NATO-Ukraine Commission in the near future in connection with the conflict between Budapest and Kiev over Ukrainian legislation in the field of education. Although Ukraine has said it is ready to implement the Venice Commission recommendations, which Hungary considers a precondition for lifting the veto, this may not happen until the fall of this year, when the Ukrainian parliament convenes after the summer break.

However, it is possible that Hungary will again decide to block cooperation between NATO and Ukraine, especially if Ukraine passes a new law that will regulate the use of the state language and weaken the position of minority languages ​​(a law regulating this issue was declared unconstitutional in February). It will be in Poland’s interests if all disputes between Hungary and Ukraine are resolved on a bilateral basis and do not affect the cooperation of the Alliance with Ukraine, the PIMD notes.