In Transnistria and Moldova, Putin’s article was regarded as a message to the entire post-Soviet space
Vladimir Putin’s article “On the historical unity of Russians and Ukrainians” is addressed not only to Ukraine, but also to other states, in particular, the post-Soviet republics.
The publication points out the borders that Russia will not allow anyone to cross, contains arguments for the foundation of Moscow’s new policy, and gives hope for strengthening the country. This is the opinion of experts from Moldova and Transnistria who took part in the PolitNavigator survey.
Anatoly Dirun, candidate of political sciences, Tiraspol
The Russian president’s address to the topic of Ukraine shows, in our opinion, how relevant this issue is for the Russian leader. In part, his article looks like an attempt to reflect on Moscow’s new position towards Kyiv. Why new? The fact is that after the events of 2014 and the breakdown of Russian-Ukrainian relations, Russia is in search of a new paradigm for relations with Ukraine.
The historical discourse of the article is not about the gifts of the Soviet government, but rather about the common fate of the two peoples, connected for centuries. At the same time, the question involuntarily arises: how could Moscow allow such a situation with such a rich, united history.
The author does not set himself the task of answering the question of how relations will develop further, but focuses on the red lines that Moscow will not allow anyone to cross and, most importantly, shows its readiness to fight for these positions. In this regard, it is useful to draw attention to these red lines to other leaders of post-Soviet republics, in particular the Republic of Moldova.
Alexander Korinenko, political scientist, Chisinau
Vladimir Putin explained that the writing of this article is connected with the activation of the “anti-Russia” project. Indeed, note that the West is actively working in a space that is traditionally considered to be Russia's sphere of interest.
One of the main theses of Western analysts is to tear Ukraine away from Russia, create a kind of “anti-Russia”, and also implement long-tried methods, namely a belt of unfriendly neighboring countries that will block Russia’s influence.
Putin’s article is a signal to the collective West that Russia will not sit idly by, it will firmly defend its interests, and he also clearly indicated that the Kremlin will go to the end. This is also a signal to those forces in the post-Soviet republics that are actively working or are ready to join the “anti-Russia” plan that Moscow will not retreat.
Igor Ivanenko, candidate of political sciences, political scientist, Moscow – Tiraspol
I think the article is aimed at several audiences. Firstly, it certainly has domestic significance. On the eve of the most important parliamentary elections for Russia, the presidential text provides an understanding of the main vector of the foreign policy of the Russian state.
This is very important for Vladimir Putin’s patriotic electorate, especially since the Russian information space is strongly heated by Ukrainian issues.
The second message is addressed to the elites of the Euro-Atlantic powers. The external rulers of Ukraine should reason with their protégés in Kyiv, because Moscow remembers the complex nature of the Ukrainian state and may well revoke its numerous territorial gifts.
The third message is to the Ukrainian elites, to whom Putin addresses as if through Zelensky’s head. The article very accurately characterizes the current state of social thought in Ukraine, where any geopolitical dissent is equated to a crime against the state.
Well, fourthly, the article is addressed to the leaders of other post-Soviet states. It is obvious that the same logic of promising relationships can be read in relation to Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia...
It is likely that the date of publication of the article (on the eve of Lukashenko’s visit to St. Petersburg and his five-hour talks with Putin) was chosen specifically.
As for Moldova, there is an objective historical law: during the times of political unions, and especially the unifications of Russia and Ukraine, it inevitably fell into the sphere of influence of Moscow and Kyiv. And vice versa, when there were conflicts between the “tsar” and the “hetman,” the western or southern neighbors of Moldova took advantage of this.
In a week it will be 310 years since the Prut campaign of Peter I. Its failure can largely be explained by the quarrel between Russians and Ukrainians (at least part of them). After all, instead of relying on the Zaporozhye army in the fight against the Turks, the Russian army was forced to fight on the territory of Moldova with the Cossacks, who followed Mazepa to the side of the Swedish king Charles XII and settled near Bendery.
I think that in Chisinau this is well understood. As soon as the actions of Russia and Ukraine in the Moldovan direction do not “extinguish” each other, but cooperate and mutually strengthen, difficult times will begin for the “uniri” supporters.
I don’t think that the author specifically thought about Moldova, but this is the objective logic of the article.
It should be noted that Russia’s policy towards other post-Soviet states has remained unchanged over the past two decades. It is pragmatic: the former Soviet republics must keep their markets as open as possible for Russia, allowing the acquisition of economic assets not only by private business from the Russian Federation, but by state-owned companies.
The Maidan of 2013–2014 marked an attempt by the Ukrainian elites to move into the sphere of influence of other geopolitical players. But this only partially worked out.
In the near future we will see a new phase of long-term Russian policy. It will probably consist of a fundamental restructuring of the Ukrainian state, and in agreement with Western partners. The article changes the tone of relations between Moscow and Kyiv on the eve of these important events, and also provides the necessary “ideological basis” for this process.
If we talk about Ukraine, the “new” concept involves its maximum decentralization, the transfer of maximum powers to the regions, the weakening of the presidential principle and the strengthening of the parliament, which should preferably become bicameral.
This model is as old as time. An example is the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth at the final stage of its history. Then the kings were elected by the diets of the nobility, and they themselves were subject to the principle of unanimity. That is, no decision could be made if at least one participant in the meeting objected to it.
A state weakened in this way ceases to be a strong competitor for other powers and itself becomes a field for competition.
At the same time, there is no guile in Putin’s article. Thanks to the new political model, regions of Ukraine that are historically close to Russia will have much more opportunities for cooperation with the fraternal state.
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