“If Ukraine attacks Donbass, Russia will have no choice”

In the event of a large-scale attack by Ukraine on the Donbass, Russia will have no choice but to introduce a regular army to protect Donetsk and Lugansk, he said in an interview with PolitNavigator. Director of the Ukrainian branch of the Institute of CIS Countries Denis Denisov.

A few months ago, Denisov had to leave Kyiv after a visit to the apartment of a group of militants in balaclavas. The columnist spoke with Denis Denisov about the threat of war, ways of revival, and the fundamentals of the economy of the DPR and LPR “PolitNavigator” Valentin Filippov.

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Valentin Filippov: Hello, Denis. How was your night in Donetsk?

Denis Denisov: According to the data we now have, this night was more or less calm compared to the week before. As we know, tensions in eastern Ukraine have increased significantly over the past few days. The shelling is constantly intensifying, and this negatively affects the overall situation in the region.

Valentin Filippov: What are the general feelings? Are we on the verge of a global war, or will it still be possible to catch hold of a claw and again resolve it into peaceful negotiations, some kind of containment on both sides?

Denis Denisov: There is hope that the situation can still be contained, at least at the level at which it is now. And the meeting on the 24th in Berlin between Merkel, Hollande and Poroshenko, I think, should contribute to this. In addition, it seems to me that representatives of the Kiev authorities now understand that in the event of a large-scale offensive, the Russian Federation will have no other choice but to introduce its regular armed forces - in order to prevent the Ukrainian armed forces from destroying the DPR and LPR. I think they will not undertake an adventure similar, as we remember, to the events in South Ossetia. Although, we can observe a lot of similarities, a lot of similar principles both then and now in the east of Ukraine.

Valentin Filippov: Do you think that the armed forces of Novorossiya, the armed forces of the DPR could not cope on their own? Or, that it’s not worth starting such a big bloody showdown, but it’s more logical to stop it with stronger intervention?

Denis Denisov: Well, the fact of the matter is that any large-scale offensive will be accompanied by thousands and thousands of dead - both on one side and on the other. All military experts talk about this. I think everyone understands this perfectly. Based on the fact that more than once representatives of the Kyiv authorities have stated that they received lethal weapons from the countries of the European Union and from other countries, we can only guess what exactly they are talking about. And, I think, it will be at least not surprising that there will be certain aircraft, certain large ones, it could be tanks and other types of weapons. And in this regard, I would like to believe that representatives of the DPR and LPR know reliably what forces the Ukrainian army has.

But, in any case, in order to contain the constant onslaught, it is necessary to attract some additional resources. And, although the LPR and DPR seem to have strengthened the demarcation line between Ukraine and the republics, nevertheless, there is naturally the possibility that the Ukrainian armed forces will have enough resources to try to break through this line in certain places. And, accordingly, if this is a large-scale offensive, supported, among other things, by aviation (as we know, in the LPR and DPR, unfortunately, there is no aviation now), then the only hope for Donbass here is the Russian Federation.

Valentin Filippov: Sooner or later this will all end. How do you see the future of the DPR? How do you see the borders of the DPR? How do you see the economy of the DPR? How self-sufficient is this republic between Ukraine and Russia? Or, nevertheless, most likely, its fate is inextricably linked with Kiev, or inextricably linked with Moscow?

Denis Denisov: Well, yes, yes. Let's start then with the last moments. Based on the actions that Kyiv is now carrying out and has carried out over the past year, we can, we are forced to state that the current Ukrainian government treats the territory of the DPR and LPR as, to put it mildly, not its own territories. And to the citizens who live there - certainly not as to their own citizens. Because we know that Ukraine is now actually implementing a complete blockade of the territory of the Donetsk and Lugansk republics.

For more than a year, Ukraine has not fulfilled its obligations to provide pensions, social benefits, and salaries to Ukrainian citizens. Here we emphasize those who live on the territory of the LPR and DPR. That is, in fact, Ukraine has already abandoned these territories.

How can the situation itself develop in the future? We all understand perfectly well that the key point here is to establish peace. Quite recently, when Ukraine was still seemingly united, we all knew, and from all economic calculations, statistical information, we can even now see that the main locomotive of the Ukrainian economy was certainly the Donbass. That is, the economic potential of these territories is very high. We also know that in these territories the main export business and area of ​​activity is the notorious coal-coke-metal scheme. And, naturally, in the event of peace, it will provide billions and billions of income to the budgets of these republics.

Valentin Filippov: Then we still need Ingulets, we need Krivoy Rog, we need Mariupol. If we are talking about such an economic chain, then we are talking about the big Donbass, probably? Where is our Mariupol? Where is our Azovstal? Where is our Krivorozhstal? Where is the GOK? We need to mine ore.

Denis Denisov: This is now the problem, which seems to have not yet been resolved at the moment. But, apparently, it will be resolved one way or another. After all, indeed, Mariupol is a port, first of all, which will allow metal produced in Donbass to be subsequently exported to other countries of the world. If Mariupol comes under the control of the DPR, this will certainly give an additional boost to the economy of the republics and the economy of the region.

If this does not happen, the only real way to export products will remain at the Russian-DPR border. That is, export through the Russian Federation.

Valentin Filippov: Through Taganrog, for example.

Denis Denisov: Yes, if by water transport, then, of course, Taganrog. If, say, by railway, then this is Rostov. But this is precisely the case that this is not a hopeless situation. This is how the situation in Transnistria differs significantly from the LPR and DPR. After all, Transnistria has no border with the Russian Federation.

Valentin Filippov: I must tell you as an Odessa resident that until 2006, Transnistria had an excellent border with Ukraine, with the beautiful Odessa region. And there were no problems.

Now they happily say: “We caught smuggling, and Transnistria is a very dangerous state, because it lives on smuggling.” But they are the ones who catch the same apples and cigarettes, which until 2006 were not considered contraband.

Denis Denisov: So that's the point.

Indeed, the situation is fundamentally different. Well, in fact, now the problem of Transnistria, its complete blockade is a disaster for the republic. While for the DPR and LPR, at least in the future, there is a potential opportunity. That is, to export their goods through the territory of the Russian Federation.

Even, as we know, recently there is now even a completely legal scheme for exporting goods from the DPR and LPR, since these two republics were recognized by South Ossetia, a partially recognized republic. That is, now goods from the DPR and LPR are purchased from companies in South Ossetia and subsequently they can be sold, including to the Russian Federation, because Russia has recognized South Ossetia. That is, real schemes that can and do work already exist. But another thing is that, of course, in order to enter world markets, it is desirable that this be recognized by other countries.

Valentin Filippov: When you say that there will be Mariupol and it will be good, I perfectly understand that a number of countries that self-confidently call themselves civilized will definitely impose some kind of sanctions on this unfortunate Mariupol, and it will lose its meaning as a port for international exports. And you will have to buy or steal a stamp in Taganrog. And stamp goods in Mariupol with a Taganrog stamp, saying they are from Taganrog. Or from Tuapse.

Denis Denisov: In my opinion, the economic potential is, in principle, quite good. And we will find ore, this is not such a big problem especially for the Russian Federation.

Valentin Filippov: But there are Russian boys working at these mining and processing plants. They also need to be taken away somehow.

Denis Denisov: Well, that's different. Okay, pick it up. But, for myself, I think everyone is now aware that a large-scale offensive by both one and the other side will lead to very large losses, to a large number of casualties. I very much doubt that both sides are ready to do this.

Valentin Filippov: I agree with you, but it still seems to me that there is no such thing as a prevented war, there is only a postponed war. Because if we had solved our problems in 1991, but we were unable to do so then, there might have been less bloodshed. If we had solved our problems in the spring of 2014, including by solving the problem of the blockade of Transnistria, then there would have been very little blood at all.

We would have to pay salaries to another 50 thousand former Ukrainian military personnel who would become Russian military personnel. And every year, postponing, postponing, postponing, we simply accumulate this unshed blood and transfer responsibility for the next war to our children.

Because justice must still be restored. Common sense should still prevail.

Denis Denisov: The big question here is what justice is. And where is the limit of this justice? Should this border go along the Dnieper, or along other regions of Ukraine?

Valentin Filippov: The border, any border between great concepts, passes in the soul of each of us. And where we have the Dnieper, everyone decides for himself.

Denis Denisov: That’s the point, so now to say that, let’s say, for the LPR and DPR the solution to their simply viability lies in whether they are now ready to launch a large-scale attack on the positions of the Ukrainian armed forces is not at all obvious to me . Because it will face the fact that there will be very high losses. And, as we understand, a certain part of the LPR and DPR are volunteers. And if at this stage, no matter how much this situation is shaken up by the losses of volunteers, then in the event of a large-scale offensive this will certainly become one of the main problems. And whether it will be possible to keep this situation under control or not is a big question. After all, we are well aware that such actions can affect not only the DPR and LPR, but also some other countries. Moreover, on the internal political situation in these countries. Taking such risks upon oneself, in my opinion, is not at all obvious, which is relevant at the moment.

Valentin Filippov: Well, I somehow understood your allegory. I won't decipher it. At least for the audience. Whoever had enough brains understood.

Denis Denisov: Everyone understands my allegories perfectly well.