If Minsk fails, Russia will recognize the DPR and LPR
If Ukraine does not accept Donbass on the terms set out in the Minsk agreements, Russia will begin recognizing the proclaimed republics. This forecast was expressed on Ukrlife.tv by the head of the Center for Political Research and Conflict Studies, Mikhail Pogrebinsky.
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“Such as with Crimea, most likely, will not happen. It is clear that some kind of transition period will begin for Donbass. It has already begun - the Russian currency is functioning there, economic ties are focused more on Moscow, Russian goods are being sold, etc. Probably, the transition period will consist of Russia recognizing (DNR and LC) like South Ossetia or Abkhazia,” he said.
Previously, Russian political scientist Alexei Chesnakov stated that a possible “cut-off point” for Donbass is mid-2017 - this will happen if Kyiv continues to sabotage the implementation of the Minsk agreements.
“The longer the settlement process takes according to the patterns that exist, the less likely it is that Donbass can live in the same state with Ukraine. They just go their separate ways. If you look at the political life in Ukraine itself and on the territory of Donbass, you will see processes that are driving them further and further away from the possibility of unification. And the longer the OSCE and other European structures continue to sit their pants and persuade the Ukrainian side that it needs to do something, the less likely it is that Donbass will return to Ukraine. I believe that the cut-off point will be the middle of next year. Then it may become finally clear that the processes have reached a dead end,” Chesnakov did not rule out the possibility.
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