In the event of a total gas shortage, Galicia and Kyiv will warm up at the expense of the South-East
If a contract for the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine is not concluded, then Ukraine will not be able to provide its entire territory with reverse gas, and the eastern part of the country will be left without blue fuel at the end of winter.
Gas market expert Dmitry Marunich stated this on the CapitalTV channel, a Politnavigator correspondent reports.
“It is possible that there will be no transit contract at all. Naftogaz has a plan to pump in 20 billion and hold out for several weeks (it still won’t be able to hold out longer).
That is, (when the gas in the UGS runs out), it will still be cold - with all the ensuing consequences.
It is difficult to say what Gazprom will do. All the same, everyone expects that there will be a contract in some form, an agreement will be reached at some reasonable time, not in three months. Of course, it will be impossible to hold out for three months. In order to survive for several weeks, you need to pump up these same 20 billion cubic meters.
Another nuance - in 2009, for example, Gazprom stopped supplies to Ukraine because there was no contract, but transit was carried out. Now the situation is such that Ukraine is not buying anything and there is no transit.
That is, conditionally, the input should be “zero”. This is problematic for Gazprom because this gas needs to be redirected somewhere. Some will be redirected, I think. They are also thinking through these options.
But this is a problem for Ukraine too, because a real “zero” is being formed in the east. Do you understand? Absolutely real “zero”. And the option is how to pump this gas in reverse, especially the question of who will close the valves and when... That is, everything here is very subtle and very risky,” Marunich concluded.
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