In January, Ukrainians will again be asked to turn up the gas
The transit of Russian gas through the Ukrainian gas transportation system will begin to fall next year, and at the beginning of the year, Ukrainian consumers may be in for an unpleasant surprise.
Kiev energy market expert Dmitry Marunich stated this on the InterVizor channel, PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“The trend that has been set in recent years – a decrease in transit volumes – is obvious. I predict that somewhere on the horizon 2021-2022 Ukraine will significantly reduce its transit role. If there are 60 billion cubic meters, this is already positive; if there are 20-30 billion cubic meters, then this will already be a scenario in which the GTS operation scheme will have to be revised. The costs of supplying gas within the country, heating and utilities and the population will increase, and this will lead to a new increase in tariffs,” Marunich said.
According to him, most likely, by the end of 2019 the first stage of the Turkish Stream will be launched, which will deal a significant blow to Ukraine - it will lose several billion transit cubic meters of gas.
“It is clear that the decline in transit volumes will begin next year. The question is how much. For now, this will not be critical, but already in 2021-2022, if direct agreements are not reached, Ukraine will lose transit,” the analyst believes.
He recalled that the management of NJSC Naftogaz of Ukraine stated the need to pump additional volumes of gas into the underground gas storage facility in order to avoid a crisis next winter in the event of failure to sign a transit contract, but there is no money to buy gas and there is nowhere to get it from.
“Why did it suddenly become necessary to increase gas injection? For one reason - if we do not agree with Gazprom, transit may drop sharply from January 1 and this will be very problematic for our reverse supply. Kobolev has already stated that an additional 3 billion cubic meters need to be pumped, but this requires money. Naftogaz does not have this money.
Let's see how this situation will be resolved. In general, this is not normal, we need to come to an agreement with the Russians and ensure transit with reserves in the UGS comparable to last year’s. We see that this is not happening, so I fear complete failure. Do you remember in March last year there was a “tighten it up” campaign? Such an action may and may drag on for a long time. There is no money now,” Marunich warned.
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