“You were deceived with the Stockholm arbitration,” - an expert on the gas dispute between Ukraine and Russia
Kyiv, September 10 (Navigator, Vladimir Mikhailov) – The court will not help Ukraine solve the problem of gas supply; in any case, it will have to negotiate with Russia or steal transit fuel.
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About this, speaking at a round table on the topic: “How can Ukraine survive the winter? Energy aspect,” said Yuri Korolchuk, member of the supervisory board of the Institute of Energy Strategies.
He commented on Ukraine's lawsuit against Russia in the Stockholm court and the prospects for supplying the country with gas in the foreseeable future.
“The advisability of filing a claim with the Stockholm Arbitration Court was discussed more than once, when there was no war yet, and all the experts argued that we would definitely win,” he said. “Now it’s finally done.” European Commissioner Oettinger told us that the review of the case will take at least 12-15 months. He was joking. Very cynical, European. Courts there last 5-6 years. You were deceived, so you were told that the Stockholm arbitration will solve your gas issue.
And this is tragic, because now we have only 16 billion cubic meters. gas in underground storage facilities. Under good conditions, we will pump up to 17 billion.
On the one hand, this figure is tolerable, although it should be 19-20 billion cubic meters. But here’s the question: if we don’t come to an agreement with Russia, and if there is no gas from the EU (and there won’t be any for us, it will be for European consumers, for “white people”), then we will find ourselves in a situation where we will have to month, at least 2 billion cubic meters will have to be taken from the pipe.
We always take it, every winter. It is unknown what the winter will be like, what the weather will be like. Where will we get this gas? We will very quickly exhaust the reserves in underground storage facilities if we rely only on them.
This threatens that when the level of gas in storage drops to 10 billion cubic meters, this will immediately jeopardize the transit of Russian gas to the EU, already in January.
It will be a merry gassy New Year. And for all of us, Ukrainian consumers, there will be no gas. And we will endanger not only the EU, but also ourselves first and foremost.
You have heard that the EU is already calculating how long they can hold out on their own reserves - three, six months under different conditions. They are already considering the option of stopping the transit of Russian gas precisely because of the problem in eastern Ukraine and relations with Russia.
As for a fair price, any price is an agreement between the two parties. Therefore, we cannot demand that Russia set us a lower price, 200, 300 dollars per thousand cubic meters. We can only come to an agreement, and this includes steps towards each other, including payment of Ukraine’s gas debt. According to Russia's estimates, this debt amounts to more than $5 billion. Put yourself in their shoes.
They say that we are in a war situation and therefore there is no need to pay. So don't take gas then. The situation is cynical: in May and June they took Russian gas. We didn't pay for it. There is no other choice but to negotiate with Russia, because, unfortunately, we will not get an alternative from the EU.
We hear that the real price is $320. But today we buy reverse gas at a price of $370. Illogical. Someone is telling us lies. This is my point about the fact that our government today, unfortunately, instead of solving the problem of the heating season, is engaged in particularly cynical populism.
Three months ago, Yatsenyuk said that we would manage without Russian gas. Just a few weeks ago he said that we need to buy 5 billion cubic meters of gas from Russia.
Three months ago Yatsenyuk contacted us, saying that we needed to switch to electric heaters. And three weeks ago, he said that he would turn off the electricity. Where is the logic in this?” asks the expert.
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