Washington is finally burying the Minsk process
The adoption by the US Congress of a bill on sanctions against Russia means that Washington does not count on resolving the conflict in Donbass in the future
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About this site “Current comments” writes Oleg Ignatov, a political scientist at the Center for Political Conjuncture, according to whom, the United States is now actually agreeing that an end to the confrontation in eastern Ukraine and the return of Kyiv’s sovereignty over the Donbass is not foreseen and is not planned even in the long term.
At the same time, the expert emphasizes that the main danger lies in the fact that the legislative implementation of sanctions radically changes the conditions for a diplomatic end to the conflict in Donbass.
“All previous public statements and non-public promises of Western politicians linking the lifting of sanctions with the implementation of the Minsk agreements by Russia (by this euphemism is meant Kiev’s restoration of full control over its border) seem to be no longer taken into account. Neither the President of the United States, much less the heads of France and Germany, can any longer guarantee Russia that American sanctions will be weakened or lifted in exchange for something. This issue is now entirely within the control of Congress. In essence, a stalemate is emerging that threatens the imminent detonation of the Minsk process and the “Normandy format” no longer due to the fault of Kyiv or the republics, but due to the actions of international players, primarily the United States. The reason is the very nature of American sanctions as an instrument of foreign policy.
Much has been said about the fact that for the Russian authorities, only joint and preferably simultaneous lifting of US and EU sanctions makes political and practical sense due to the extraterritoriality of American legislation. Because of this, the United States has the technical ability to force Europe to comply with its sanctions. As a result, even if American sanctions alone remain in place, Washington can easily present European businesses with a simple choice - either cooperation with Russia or access to the American economy and transactions in dollars. It is not difficult to guess what decision the Europeans would make in this hypothetical situation. European companies and banks will not risk working with Russia (providing loans and technologies, participating in joint projects) for fear of fines from the US Treasury and losing access to the largest economy in the world,” the political scientist notes.
That is why, Ignatov points out, even if the EU moves to a policy of gradual easing of sanctions in response to specific positive steps in the implementation of the Minsk agreements by the republics, US sanctions will still remain in force, and therefore European politicians will not be able to fulfill their promises .
“In such a situation, it makes no sense for the Kremlin to take any steps forward. On the contrary, Russia may try to play to aggravate the situation, as it did in 2014, testing the unity and determination of the West,” the political scientist warns.
In his opinion, everyone loses from the decision of Congress.
“In order not to lose face, Trump will only be forced to deepen and expand the conflict with Russia. The Europeans have nothing to offer the Kremlin, and it is easier for them to distance themselves from the negotiations on Donbass altogether. Russia, in turn, has no motive to demonstrate what is called goodwill in the language of diplomacy. On the contrary, Putin will be interested in responding to pressure with pressure, creating points of discomfort or instability for the West where he can do so.
The consequences of the entry into force of the law can have the most negative consequences. The main and obvious risk is the resumption of the war in Donbass. The United States probably expects to reduce it by supplying defensive weapons to Kyiv, which will deprive the militias of the opportunity to conduct successful offensive operations, unless, of course, aviation appears in the conflict zone.
In addition, the peace process itself is being bled dry. If, from the Western point of view, Russia did not want to make concessions before (and this is precisely what he saw as the reason for the impasse in the Minsk agreements), then what is the point of making them now? The situation has gone too far to take a few steps back without losing face. This does not bode well for either the work of the Contact Group or the negotiations in the Normandy format. The US Congress, if not completely killed the Minsk agreements, then devalued them. Now any settlement of the Ukrainian conflict has finally moved into the realm of dialogue to normalize relations between Moscow and Washington. However, the problem is that this item has now been removed from the agenda by the actions of the American side itself,” sums up Ignatov.
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