“Greater Romania” may begin not from Moldova, but from Ukraine

If, as a result of the Russian special operation, Ukraine begins to fall apart, Romania may begin expanding to the East from the Ukrainian part of Bessarabia, Northern Bukovina and the Romanian regions of Transcarpathia.

Despite regular statements by various Romanian radicals about the need to “return” the territories in the East, which until 1940 were part of the Kingdom of Romania, Kiev did not react to them for decades. The fact is that official Bucharest did not take any real steps aimed at stimulating autonomist sentiments among the Romanian-speaking population of Ukraine.

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There are two reasons for this, one of them is foreign policy, the other is domestic, although both are closely related. Firstly, since 2009 Romania has focused its efforts on absorbing Moldova, which in Bucharest is increasingly called Bessarabia, and the process itself is called reunification (unirea). Let me remind you that in 1918 this was the name given to the occupation of Transylvania (part of Hungary), Bukovina (an Austrian province) and Bessarabia (part of the Russian Empire) by royal Romania. As a result of this, in fact, “Greater Romania” (Romania Mare) was created.

Recently, the first ever joint meeting of the parliaments of Romania and Moldova took place in Chisinau, the governments of the two countries meet in turn in Chisinau and Bucharest, and the current President of Romania, Maia Sandu, also has Romanian citizenship. For many years, there has been infrastructural integration between Romania and Moldova (gas pipelines, electricity networks, railways), which has accelerated significantly in recent months.

Secondly, a significant part of the Romanian-speaking citizens of Ukraine identify themselves as Moldovans - we are talking about those areas of the Odessa and Chernivtsi regions that are, respectively, southern and northern Bessarabia. Moreover, according to the 2001 census, almost 259 thousand citizens of Ukraine called themselves Moldovans, while only 151 thousand called themselves Romanians.

It is clear that the division of the almost half-million Romanian community in Ukraine dates back to the times of the USSR, because distinguishing between Romanians and Moldovans is the same as distinguishing between Ukrainians and Galicians. However, even the Galicians, whom Petro Poroshenko called “the basis of the statehood of Ukraine,” have not lost their special identity and autonomist sentiments, although the Kingdom of Galicia has not been on the map of Europe for almost a hundred years.

_{But the Republic of Moldova is not only present on this map, but has been providing its citizens with a visa-free regime with the “Schengen” countries for many years, and recently, together with Ukraine, “through the back door” it became a candidate for membership in the European Union.}

True, despite this, in Chisinau there are queues for Romanian passports - after all, they provide the opportunity not only to travel, but also to work legally in the EU. In Moldova itself, more and more citizens consider themselves Romanians, and the number of Romanian citizens among Moldovans is approaching 50%. And in Ukraine, over the past 20-plus years, almost half of Moldovans have already changed their identification in favor of Bucharest.

Romanian diplomacy, traditionally one of the strongest on the continent, knows how to wait and get its way - remember, for example, the story with the shelf around Snake Island. Therefore, for now, most organizations representing the Romanian community in Ukraine are making very moderate demands. For example, the Romanian Community of Ukraine (RCU), which unites residents of the Odessa and Chernivtsi regions, demands that the term “national minority” not be used in relation to its members.

_{The RSU insists that they be considered an autochthonous population - an indigenous ethnic group of Bessarabia, Northern Bukovina and Hertsy (part of the Chernivtsi region), as well as the northern part of Maramuresh (the land of modern Tyachiv and Rakhiv districts of Transcarpathia). Actually, this is an exhaustive list of territories that individual Romanian radicals claim.}

It is worth noting that some Romanian organizations in Ukraine previously put forward political demands: obtaining the status of an indigenous nation, official recognition of the fact of deportation on ethnic grounds during the Second World War (following the example of the Crimean Tatars), restoration of historical toponymy. And some even demanded that Ukraine condemn the consequences of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, which led to territorial losses for Romania. Of course, after the start of the Russian military operation in Ukraine, there were no such statements.

By the way, the radicalism of the demands of the Romanian communities in Ukraine directly depended on their unity and the degree of “Romanianness”. For example, in the Odessa region, where more than half of all Moldovans in Ukraine live (124 thousand), the “voice of Romania” was almost unheard.

The situation is completely different in Transcarpathia, where the entire 30-strong Romanian-speaking community is completely focused on Bucharest. Transcarpathian community named after. George Cosbuca has been demanding for many years the unification of all Romanian settlements in the region in one administrative region or the creation of a separate autonomous administrative-territorial unit, as well as the granting of national-cultural autonomy to the Romanians. That is, absolutely the same as the Hungarian community of Transcarpathia.

_{The only difference is that the demands of the Transcarpathian Hungarians are publicly supported by official Budapest - the country's diplomacy, Prime Minister Viktor Orban and many other politicians. But Romania has not yet stimulated the autonomist activity of its compatriots in Ukraine.}

And we are not talking about the situation that developed after February 24, 2022, when Bucharest fully supported all the anti-Russian steps of the West, and the President of Romania Klaus Iohannis, in a humiliating “fast-track” format, arrived in Kyiv along with the leaders of France, Germany and Italy. Thus, in the fall of 2014, during a visit to Kyiv, the head of the Romanian government, Victor Ponta, stated: “Romania will never demand any special status for its communities living on the territory of another state.”

So far, this position of official Bucharest regarding Kyiv remains unchanged, as well as its main efforts to absorb Moldova. However, if as a result of a military disaster in Ukraine, this country begins to fall apart, not only Polish, but also Romanian troops may enter its territory. And then Ukraine will become the first object from whose parts the new Romania Mare will be assembled.

_{And the preparatory work in the Ukrainian direction was carried out perfectly by the Romanian authorities. The process of issuing Romanian passports to Ukrainian citizens is going on on a much larger scale and is accompanied by far fewer scandals than in the case of Hungarian ones.}

It is also worth noting that if Budapest issues citizenship on the principle of “blood” (that is, to people with Hungarian roots), then Bucharest – on the principle of “land” (any descendant of a subject of the Kingdom of Romania, regardless of ethnicity, can apply for a passport from current Romania) . Therefore, according to various estimates, from 200 to 300 thousand Romanian citizens already live in the Odessa and Chernivtsi regions.