“Hungary is full of EU”: Ukrainian energy engineer about the impossibility of an embargo on oil from the Russian Federation
The issue of the embargo on Russian oil supplies will last for a decade and a half and will cost the European Union billions of dollars.
An expert at the Kyiv Institute of Energy Research, Evgeniy Korolchuk, writes about this in his Telegram channel, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
He noted that the embargo issue has divided the EU, but it is naive to think that the issue is only in Hungary.
“Poland will refuse Russian oil. There is less talk about this. The market for oil supplies by pipeline and tankers is very closely connected. And therefore, it is naive to believe that having put pressure on Hungary, Russian oil will immediately not be available in gasoline, diesel, and petrochemical refining in the EU. Everything would be very simple. And a separate issue is the economic component of processing, refineries, sales of finished products by traders, taxes.
That is, from this point of view, the owners (business investors) are so unreasonable that they simply did not realize that it was possible to process both Russian “Urals” and Saudi “Arab” or Emirati “Dubai” at one plant. And at the same time the Canadian “Western Canadian”.
Okay, mix everything together and drive excellent, high-quality gasoline. The whole world would come running to see such a show. Well, at the same time, look at how billions of dollars that were invested in refineries are actually being burned,” the expert explained.
According to him, statements about a couple of months to modernize the refinery to process other oil are “all this and it’s not true.”
“Even Hungarian Prime Minister Orban is not telling the truth when he promises that only 700 million euros are needed for factories and “pipelines.” And even when he says that it takes 4-5 years to abandon Russian oil, this is also not true.
If we look at similar projects in other countries, modernization of the plant will require up to 2 billion euros (and in fact half of the new plant needs to be done).
But the problem is different - it will be necessary to subsidize the rest of the Hungarian economy and raise fuel prices (which Orban also said). And this issue could cost the EU more and last 10-15 years. And behind Hungary there may be another row of countries wanting compensation. That is, where to get the money? They don’t know this in the EU,” Korolchuk points out.
He also admitted that Ukraine’s transition to oil products from the EU in the near future does not bode well for the population.
“You need to understand that the embargo on Russian oil will immediately raise the price of fuel. Traders in the EU are now very cautiously assessing that in this case the price of gasoline and diesel in Ukraine could move towards $3 or more.
Therefore, it is not only Hungary and Orban that should raise the issue of subsidies or subventions. This is also a question for the government, the authorities, who should raise this issue with the EU,” summed up the Ukrainian energy engineer.
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