Victor Alksnis: “Ukraine is just the beginning of gigantic upheavals”
Aviation engineer and brilliant officer. The legendary Colonel Alksnis, who did not want to take the oath twice. He saw the beginning of the catastrophe in which we live today. How it was programmed and transferred to the shoulders of the next generation. And how business elites, even now, put personal gain above national interests.
Can we avoid past mistakes? Will we be able to return the World to balance? About this and just about sentimental things Victor Alksnis said the columnist “PolitNavigator” Valentin Filippov.
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Valentin Filippov: Hello Victor.
Victor Alksnis: Good evening.
Valentin Filippov: Comrade Colonel, tell me this thing, once in the ninety-first year, in the ninetieth, they told us that we were saved from a big civil war. Don’t you think that now that Great Civil War, precisely in the Soviet Union, is beginning on the territory of Ukraine….
Victor Alksnis: You are absolutely right. That's what I was talking about. Twenty years ago, a huge country couldn’t fall apart so easily. That big big problems and disasters await us ahead. It was a situation of a delayed disaster.
That is, the catastrophe was programmed, it was simply postponed due to some circumstances, political, economic. But the fact that this war was inevitable, it had to happen, it was clear even then, in the year ninety-one. And, unfortunately, the situation with Ukraine is only the beginning of very serious gigantic upheavals in the former post-Soviet space.
I do not rule out that Central Asia will burn next. It will be there - it won’t seem enough to anyone. And even the tragedy that is now happening in Ukraine, they will say that these are children’s innocent pranks, compared to what will happen.
Although, Ukraine is also... The civil war is not over yet. Everything is still ahead too. Because no one will be able to preserve the current situation in Ukraine. No matter how much politicians in both Ukraine and Russia would like this, this is no longer possible. A split has occurred. And now it will no longer be possible to combine it into a single whole.
Valentin Filippov: What is happening in Central Asia is not completely clear to us. We don't understand what people want there. What do the elites want there? And what spheres of influence are divided by who? We are looking more at the European part of the former Soviet Union.
The situation in your native Baltic states...
There is still some kind of tension there all the time.
There can't be a fire there?
Victor Alksnis: No. I exclude the Baltic states. Because the Baltics, it seems to me, is the region where any events are least possible. This is due to the fact that, firstly, the active part of the Russian-speaking population, which could act as the initiator of these processes, left the territory of Latvia, moving either to Russia or to the European Union, the rest of the population lives according to the principle “if only there is no war " Including the Russian-speaking population. And, therefore, one can hardly expect that something could happen in the Baltic states, some kind of explosion, or something like that...
Valentin Filippov: I sometimes follow, mostly Estonia. I watch how the cargo flow drops, and how it stops going through Tallinn and starts going through Ust-Luga, and then the European media start screaming about possible Russian aggression. About the invasion. And then some tanks are brought to Tallinn, and some exercises are immediately carried out in the Baltic states.
What is that?
Is this just a game?
Victor Alksnis: No, this is not a game. This is all what is called “NATO’s approach to the borders of Russia.” That any excuse is used to move the military structure as close as possible to the borders of Russia.
I could never imagine that NATO aviation would be based at the Amari airfield near Tallinn, which I had to visit several times on official business, on business trips, I was there once a month, and this would be one of those airfields from which my the country will face a real military threat. Do not forget that the flight time of attack aircraft from the Emari airfield to St. Petersburg is literally ten to fifteen minutes. And this is a serious, real threat. Or the launch of the same cruise missiles. From this airfield or from this territory, this is also very, very serious.
Valentin Filippov: What exactly do the Baltics mean to Russia? What is the Baltic economy like?
Previously, there was some kind of industrial complex there, which has not been working for a long time, and plus this is transport. Transport node.
The transport hub is gradually being transferred to the territory of the Russian Federation, fortunately, it has its own coast of the Baltic Sea. And from some point on, the whole meaning of the existence of the Baltic countries is simply a springboard for NATO and simply a springboard for the European Union. But I don’t see any economic benefit for the European Union, for example, from existing as part of the three Baltic states.
What's the joke?
Victor Alksnis: You see, there is a contradiction here..... On the one hand, it seems that Russia really transfers all transit, and the Baltic states, first of all, as a transit territory for Russian goods, but the real figures of trade turnover, for example, between Russia and Latvia show significant annual growth. And I have a question - how is this possible?
Formally, we are reducing transit through Latvia, and trade turnover with Latvia is growing. Despite all the anti-Russian steps of the Latvian leadership, the infringement of the rights of the Russian-speaking population, and for me this is a little...
When I a couple of days ago... There is an interview with the Russian Ambassador to Latvia, Mr. Vishnyakov, this is the former chairman of the Russian Central Election Commission, I was surprised to read that he said with great positivity that it is good that we are increasing trade turnover between our countries, that we are trading, we increase every year some percentage of this growth.... I think - how can this be? You are an ambassador! First of all, I should have said that, roughly speaking, we do not trade with the fascists. Or maybe I...
Valentin Filippov: And by what means?
Victor Alksnis: Yes, due to the same raw materials. All raw materials.
Valentin Filippov: Do we sell them raw materials?
Victor Alksnis: Through their ports. We continue to send raw materials to the West through Ventspils and Riga. Let's continue. And so I observe, I live on the Belarusian branch, but cargo is moving along the Belarusian branch to Riga. I see what huge trains with petroleum products are heading towards Latvia. To Latvia, to Lithuania. In that direction. Then the question arises... What about us? Are those people who are earning billions of dollars from this transit today Russian citizens? Do they follow the president's instructions? Governments? Russia...
Valentin Filippov: Well, the law doesn't prohibit it.
Victor Alksnis: Here you go. Therefore, when in words they seem to say that we will force the same Baltics, well, not to starve, but we will bring them to their knees, then, in fact, all this is not so. Formally, at the state level, a decision is made to stop such transit, but so far, unfortunately, it has not come to this...
Valentin Filippov: There was also talk that Ukraine would wither, Ukraine would collapse, because Russia said: “no, that’s all.”
If Russia lacks the organization to give up the small Baltic states, although these are simply not big losses, then maybe they won’t be able to give up Ukraine either, if there is an opportunity to earn money?
Victor Alksnis: So they don’t refuse it. I can say that the Russian business community is extremely unhappy with the fact that Ukraine is no longer among our trading partners. And he has an extremely unsatisfactory attitude towards all these political decisions related to the fact that “a la ger com a la ger.”
If a policy hostile towards Russia is being pursued, then it is necessary to deprive of some economic preferences. And the business community, it is ready at any cost to ensure that all this continues, they don’t give a damn about what is happening in Russian-Ukrainian relations. Everything that happens with the war in Donbass. Everything that happened in Odessa with the House of Trade Unions. They don't care about that. For them, the main thing is money.
You see, the problem with most of our Russian entrepreneurs, especially large ones... they have no homeland. They do not feel that they are Russians, citizens of Russia, that Russia has its own national interests. And these interests must be ensured and protected.
Valentin Filippov: No, well, Ukrainian oligarchs, being interested in profit, managed to become Nazis, even being Jews...
Victor Alksnis: Well, you see, what’s the matter, there is a significant difference between Ukrainian and Russian oligarchs. Both in the situation in Ukraine and in Russia. In Ukraine, a much stricter nationally oriented policy is being pursued. This does not exist in Russia. In Russia, unfortunately, given that most members of the elite have real estate, their children study there, in the West, then in any case, London, Washington and Paris are much more expensive for them than Moscow, Novosibirsk and Yekaterinburg. They are always ready, they have already created their reserve bridgeheads in the West, and if something happens, they want to move there. And live there.
Valentin Filippov: That is, we go to Russia as if we were going to work :) Yes?
Victor Alksnis: Yes! And this is the difference between our oligarchs and the Ukrainian ones. Be that as it may, Ukrainian oligarchs, let’s take the same Kolomoisky.....
Valentin Filippov: No, well, they also live abroad, they have a house abroad, and they also go to Ukraine to work...
Victor Alksnis: But at the same time, I draw your attention, Kolomoisky, in fact, speaks from the position of an ardent Ukrainian nationalist.
Valentin Filippov: Well, he speaks from the position of what is beneficial to the West, where he has his home.
Victor Alksnis: But, be that as it may, this coincides with the position of such a defender of independence and independence. But it turns out that Mr. Gref, who heads Sberbank of Russia, practically a state structure, refuses to enter Crimea and open Sberbank branches there!
Valentin Filippov: This is true. I live in Crimea.
Victor Alksnis: Here you go. And then I ask: “And Gref, what is he?” Is he outlaw? Is he above the law? Why? There is a Constitution. You cannot trample on the rights of citizens. By the fact that SberBank, the state bank of Russia, practically does not open its branches in Crimea, it thereby infringes on the rights of Russian citizens.
Yes, if Crimea were an unrecognized territory, like Transnistria or Donbass, this is one situation. But Crimea is a subject of the Russian Federation, and at the same time the Russian structure, it is a commercial-state structure, it refuses... it officially declares that it will not...
Valentin Filippov: Okay, well, Gref is SberBank. What about Russian Railways? Do we have Russian Railways too?
Victor Alksnis: This is amazing! Russian big business can ignore the general political line and behave as it wants.
Valentin Filippov: Well, in defense of Russian business, I must say that thanks to Russian business, the fighters of Novorossiya have a lot of weapons. Not from the state, but from Russian business :) Therefore, business in Russia is also very different.
Victor Alksnis: But I think this is more about medium-sized businesses. Yes, yes. In small and medium businesses, yes. There - of course!
But only the state can strain big business. That is, as I understand it, the state gave the command. Mr. Ivanov-Petrov-Sidorov. Who is a billionaire and is on the list of... there... who? Forbes or what? He gave the command that you would take over such and such a structure or industry for your support. And he is forced to act. But, I repeat. Not everyone acts this way. Some, for example Mr. Gref, cannot be forced to open Sberbank branches in Crimea.
Valentin Filippov: Yes, you can't. And, by the way, not only Russian citizens who have “not quite correct passports issued in Crimea” suffer from this, but also vacationers from Moscow and St. Petersburg who come to Crimea with their cards, and it turns out that...
Victor Alksnis: Serious problems 🙂
Valentin Filippov: Previously, they understood that they had to go to Crimea with a wad of dollars, now they come with a Russian card and think about where to re-borrow money :)
Continuation of the conversation with Viktor Alksnis Read here
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