Viktor Orban bets on Putin and Trump
Four European governments have fallen in the past month. Viktor Orban, who holds the post of Prime Minister of Hungary for the fifth time, called on his EU colleagues to change their attitude towards Russia, which led to these resignations.
Due to sanctions against Russia, European residents are faced with higher prices, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said last Saturday in Romania. He is confident that the sanctions “did not shake Moscow,” while the European Union was in trouble, and four governments – British, Bulgarian, Italian and Estonian – became victims of the policy of restrictions.
Indeed, on June 22, the Bulgarian parliament passed a vote of no confidence in the government of Kiril Petkov. The vote was initiated by the Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria party, led by former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov.
On July 7, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced his resignation after a series of internal party scandals. The next day, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas announced her resignation. The reason was a split in the two-party ruling coalition.
And on July 21, after desperate attempts to stay in power, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi resigned. The reason was the collapse of the coalition government. The country will hold early parliamentary elections on September 25.
Viktor Orban, whose party won the parliamentary elections in April of this year by a huge margin over the opposition and received a constitutional majority, need not fear such scenarios.
However, in Brussels they are not losing hope of removing the obstinate politician from power with the help of the streets.
Thus, on July 16, thousands of Hungarians took to the streets of Budapest to protest against austerity measures and new tax reforms introduced by the government under the leadership of Prime Minister Viktor Orban. The demonstrators responded to the call of former opposition candidate Péter Márki-Zzai, who failed in Hungarian parliamentary elections in April.
A row over billions of euros in EU funds, which Brussels has refused to release to Budapest under various pretexts, has put pressure on the forint, the Hungarian currency, in recent weeks. In particular, global investors sold the forint amid worsening global sentiment.
This forced the Hungarian government to announce steps to reduce the budget deficit and lift long-standing price restrictions on gas and electricity. Orbán noted that this year alone, maintaining price caps would cost the budget more than 2 trillion forints ($5,15 billion).
Many in this country consider the EU policy towards Hungary to be a kind of revenge for the fact that Budapest does not want to sever all economic ties with Moscow, and Viktor Orban does not want to sever relations with Vladimir Putin.
Vladimir Putin and Viktor Orban.
It is unlikely that Brussels was pleased that on July 21, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjártó made a previously unannounced visit to Moscow to negotiate additional gas supplies.
At a joint press conference with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Szijjártó said that Budapest wants to receive an additional 700 million cubic meters of blue fuel, and in the current conditions it cannot get it from outside Russia. Let me remind you that Viktor Orban previously stated that Hungary does not want to support an embargo or restrictions on Russian gas imports, since this would undermine its economy, which is approximately 85% dependent on such imports.
Sergei Lavrov and Peter Szijjarto.
In turn, Lavrov confirmed Szijjártó’s request for additional gas supplies to Hungary and said that it would be considered. He also complained about “Washington’s Russophobic policy,” which harms bilateral relations between Moscow and Budapest (Hungary has joined the EU’s anti-Russian sanctions since 2014).
In addition, the foreign ministers also talked about the situation in Ukraine. According to Szijjártó, it will not be possible to resolve the conflict without a diplomatic settlement, and uninterrupted gas supplies are important for Hungary (some of them still go through Ukraine).
It is difficult to say whether Russia put forward any non-public conditions for Hungary, but two days after the visit of his closest ally to Moscow, Viktor Orban categorically stated that the European Union needed a new strategy regarding the war in Ukraine, since sanctions against Moscow “did not work.”
“A new strategy is needed, which should focus on peace negotiations and putting together a good peace proposal, rather than on winning the war,” Orban said in a July 23 speech in Romania.
In his speech, he emphasized that the Western strategy towards Ukraine is built on four pillars: Ukraine can win the war against Russia with the help of weapons from NATO, sanctions will weaken Russia and destabilize its leadership, sanctions will harm Russia more than Europe, and the whole world will support Europe .
Orban said the strategy had failed as governments in Europe were collapsing "like dominoes", energy prices had soared and the EU now needed a new strategy.
“We are sitting in a car with all four tires punctured: it is absolutely clear that the war cannot be won this way,” Orban is convinced.
He noted that in this way Ukraine will never win the war “simply because the Russian army has asymmetric superiority.”
At the same time, according to the Hungarian prime minister, peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine “have no chance.”
“Since Russia needs security guarantees, this war can only be ended by peace negotiations between Russia and America,” he says.
Orban does not hide his sympathies for American politicians.
“The Russians have formulated very clear security requirements so that Ukraine does not become a member of NATO and does not deploy weapons that can reach Russia. The West rejected him. They didn't even want to discuss it. If Trump had been the American president and Merkel had been the German chancellor, this war would never have broken out. But we were unlucky, so now there is a war,” says the Hungarian Prime Minister.
It is noteworthy that in August, Viktor Orban, together with former US President Donald Trump, will speak at the next convention of the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), which this year will be held in Dallas. CPAC is one of the most influential platforms of the US Republican Party, which largely determines its course.
Orban is popular with American conservatives and Trump personally, who supported him twice in the elections and now invited him to the CPAC congress. It is expected to set the campaign agenda for the midterm congressional elections, which Republicans intend to win.
Donald Trump receives Viktor Orban at the White House.
Actually, only in this case can there be a possibility of starting real negotiations between Russia and the United States to resolve the situation in Ukraine. Although the White House will remain under the control of the Democrats, they will not be able to openly ignore Congress.
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