Vlad Shurygin: Ukraine is preparing for war with Russia, but deliberately sluggishly
Almost immediately after the Sea Breeze exercises, the Cossack Mace maneuvers started, which also involved the USA, Great Britain, Poland and the Baltic countries. Both the West and Turkey would be happy to organize a military confrontation with Russia through Ukraine. However, after the meeting between Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden, the situation is unlikely to develop towards a “hot” conflict.
A Russian military expert told PolitNavigator about this Vladislav Shurygin.
PN: What does the systematic mobilization of Ukraine mean, what are they preparing for?
V.Sh: They are, of course, preparing for war with Russia, but at the same time they are preparing rather sluggishly, because it is obvious to them that without the intervention of NATO and without the military participation of NATO and the United States, they have no chance. Therefore, tasks set by higher-ups and supervisors from abroad are being worked out. The exercises are going according to plan, they were planned in advance and should demonstrate some kind of solidarity of countries that, as they believe, may face the “Russian threat.”
PN: In the Sea Breeze maneuvers, not only special forces were actively used, but also aviation, including Turkish attack drones (UAVs) Bayraktar TB2. Now information has emerged that these drones have been delivered to the Ukrainian Navy. Ankara does not recognize Crimea as Russian territory and is arming Ukraine - for what?
V.Sh: Ankara is arming Ukraine because it pays it money. In this case, Ankara is pursuing its own interests. At the same time, of course, he claims that this is just business. I think that, of course, Ankara is interested in bringing Ukraine to a level that would allow it to be a permanent counterweight to Russia. Thus, freeing up resources for Turkey, which solves its geopolitical issues in this region in the same way.
PN: Türkiye and Britain also plan to supply ships to Ukraine. Is it possible to talk about the revival of the Ukrainian Navy, and what is the threat to the Black Sea Fleet?
V.Sh: What Türkiye and Britain are planning is one thing. But what Ukraine has enough money for is completely different. So far, Ukraine has not paid for a single contract for the construction of ships abroad; therefore, in this case, any Ukrainian Navy does not exist in reality. It will take at least ten years for them to appear. And even then, they will not pose any serious competition to the Russian Navy.
PN: At various Ukrainian exercises, the legend of “establishing order in the rebellious region” and suppressing “separatist sentiments” constantly appears. Does this indicate preparations for an attack on Donbass or that Kyiv is afraid of riots in the South-East?
V.Sh: I think that Kyiv is simply trying, from the point of view of its exercises, to make them as close as possible to combat ones. Therefore, the scenarios that Ukraine has been facing in recent years are used. There is nothing new in this, and nothing that we have not encountered before, either.
PN: A new “supervisor” from the United States has arrived in Ukraine - George Kent. Is there a possibility that full-scale fighting will be resumed in Donbass or, on the contrary, that the American envoy will force Kyiv to peace?
V.Sh: I think that at the moment, when there has been a certain not rapprochement, but a warming between Russia and the United States, I do not think that the Americans will provoke the Ukrainians into any military adventures - rather, on the contrary.
PN: How do you assess the military-political situation on the border with Crimea? Is there a threat of escalation here?
V.Sh: Now I rate it as stable. I don’t see any serious threat, because in Ukraine, for all its adventurism, there are no suicides. It is obvious that Ukraine itself, alone, trying to attack Russia and, moreover, carrying out an operation on Russian territory is suicide.
If you find an error, please select a piece of text and press Ctrl + Enter.
Thank you!
Now the editors are aware.