Vladimir Kornilov: It’s stupid for Zelensky to hope for the success of gas blackmail in Paris
Ukrainian patriots are in vain hoping to use gas blackmail at the Normandy Four meeting in Paris to obtain concessions on the issues of Donbass and Crimea. Russia has learned from bitter experience and does not believe in the unfounded promises of the West and Kyiv.
Historian and political scientist Vladimir Kornilov argued with PolitNavigator columnist Valentin Filippov about the borders of the LDPR, Zelensky’s tricks and Putin’s conditions, the exchange of prisoners.
Valentin Filippov: The DPR approved the law on the state border, according to which the republic considers the entire former Donetsk region, including settlements now occupied by the Ukrainian army, to be its territory. Where can Volnovakha residents get their passports?
Vladimir Kornilov: In Donesk. If you are talking about DPR passports. They can do this now.
Valentin Filippov: How? DPR passports are issued based on registration, registration must be directly in this territory. And, moreover, it should be from that 14th year, and not made now.
Vladimir Kornilov: If not now, then understandable. But if they lived in the same Volnovakha in 14, then they can come to the DPR, submit documents, wait a certain period, and, as full citizens of the Donetsk People's Republic, receive their passports.
In fact, well, let's speak frankly, the Donetsk People's Republic was initially proclaimed in May 14, this is clearly written down in the constituent documents, within the borders, administrative boundaries, of the former Donetsk region of Ukraine. That is, the law on borders has not changed anything in this sense.
Indeed, this act brought the legislative basis under the order of things that had long been approved by the Constitution and constitutional bodies of the Donetsk Republic.
Indeed, in order to receive passports of the DPR, and then passports of the Russian Federation, there was a certain gap in the legislative field. That is, it seems like they are all citizens of the DPR, this is recognized by the laws, but a clearer legislative framework has been introduced under the existing order, and that’s all. There is nothing more to look for in this.
Valentin Filippov: On the Ukrainian side there is a ministry “for issues of temporarily occupied territories.” Perhaps, on the DPR side, it would be worth organizing a ministry responsible for the territories that are now temporarily under the control of Ukraine?
Vladimir Kornilov: It’s a good idea, it will need to be passed on to the leadership of the Donetsk People’s Republic. The name is good. Just be sure to mention “temporarily occupied territories.”
Valentin Filippov: Temporarily. Under no circumstances should we say “timchasovo”; “timchasovo” does not suit us.
Vladimir Kornilov: “Timchasovo” is not necessary. No, you understand, what kills me most here is the noise raised in this regard on the territory of Ukraine. That is, such headlines - “everything means they are expanding their borders, this is undermining the Normandy format, this is a contradiction to the Minsk agreements”...
You know, to be honest, when I learned about the news about the adopted law, I naively believed that the Ukrainian side would be smart enough not to make a fuss about this, not to be indignant, because if they were indignant that the DPR was expanding its borders, it means at a minimum, they recognized the existence of the DPR borders that currently exist.
But, nevertheless, you see, they lack intelligence. If they continue to declare that this is a violation of the Minsk format, the Minsk agreements, then they will thereby recognize the existence of the DPR as such, within the boundaries of the current dividing lines, at a minimum.
This would be very stupid on the part of Ukraine.
In fact, this law in no way, in any way, violates the Minsk agreements, because according to these Minsk agreements, the borders of the DPR are not specified. The zone of dividing lines is stipulated there, moreover, in the documents under these very Minsk agreements, which, in general, can always be adjusted and changed. But, from the point of view of the laws of the DPR, this current law, in general, does not change anything.
Valentin Filippov: Now everyone is saying that it is quite possible that there will be some kind of shift in Paris, and Ukraine will follow the path of implementing the Minsk agreements.
Well, I don't believe it, but for some reason they say so.
What should we do in this situation with the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, which are not directly named in the Minsk agreements, and we are talking about “separate areas”?
And, by the way, it is written there that the People’s Militia reports to the mayors of cities, and not to the Minister of Defense of the DPR. How to really deal with the structures of the DPR and LPR in this situation?
Vladimir Kornilov: The same as it was before. In a sense, the DPR and LPR are guided by their own laws insofar as they do not contradict the Minsk agreements.
Why was the People's Militia included there and why are now the defense structures of the DPR/LPR, in general, reformed under this name, under this structure? Because this really corresponds to the Minsk agreements.
As for whether Ukraine will implement them or not. Well, let’s put it this way, literally several such steps have now been taken as part of Ukraine’s implementation of the Minsk agreements, well, standardly, the disengagement of forces at three points and so on. But at the same time, the importance of these steps cannot be overestimated.
Let me remind you that Ukraine has already done all this under Poroshenko, that is, there was already disengagement, there were already some exchanges of prisoners... Ukraine has already done this, which did not stop it from not giving a damn about all this when it needed to occupy all these populated areas, in spite of to their obligations, the Minsk agreements and any formulas.
Well, now I’ve done it. And what is Zelensky going to Paris with? Well, to be honest, no one can understand, including, in my opinion, Zelensky himself. Because we have heard what Putin is coming with more than once, from the lips of Putin himself, and now Mr. Lavrov articulated this very clearly in his speech.
That is, from this we draw the conclusion that Putin is going to Paris, to this very Normandy format, in order to force Ukraine into a direct dialogue between the DPR and the LPR. And note that Putin himself uses these names; DPR and LPR have already been mentioned in his mouth more than once. Here.
But what is Ukraine coming with? Well, so far we are hearing unintelligible statements, sharply at odds with the Minsk agreements, that we will under no circumstances change the Constitution for a special status, we will somehow write a law on a special status ourselves, and ask no one, not even we won’t coordinate it with anyone, and so on and so forth.
That is, well, in my opinion, Russia has already quite clearly, repeatedly, through the mouths of senior and not-so-senior figures, made it clear to Ukraine that it is better not to go to Paris with this at all.
We even heard statements, there were hints, half-hints that Crimea would be discussed...
Valentin Filippov: Yes, it was.
Vladimir Kornilov: ... they say, Ukraine wants in this Normandy format. But here, in my opinion, they answered quite clearly that no one is going to discuss Crimea with you in any format. Here.
They are going to raise the gas issue. Apparently Zelensky thinks that now is a favorable time to blackmail both Russia and Europe with the gas issue.
Valentin Filippov: Well that's true.
Vladimir Kornilov: Apparently, he thinks like this: “But now I’ll take it to them and tell them that we’ll release gas if you make some concessions within the framework of the Minsk format.”
But this, sorry, is also stupidity. If, in fact, someone in Kiev believes that this momentary moment can be used to bargain for strategic advantages in Donbass or, there, especially in Crimea, well, this means that they do not understand the difference between strategy and tactics.
Russia understands perfectly well that even if they promise a temporary limitation, lifting, easing of sanctions against Russia, and in response Russia will have to give up what tomorrow cannot be changed in any way...
Well, excuse me, this means a naive expectation, a complete lack of understanding of the fact that Russia knows very well the price of all these sanctions and promises to lift or weaken.
Valentin Filippov: Well, God forbid, if he knows. For decades we knew this, but we kept getting caught. Starting with Gorbachev, who was promised not to expand NATO.
Vladimir Kornilov: Well, now we have learned from bitter experience. In fact, Gorbachev did not understand anything about how it worked, Yeltsin did not understand anything at all about how it worked, but Putin clearly said last year that, unfortunately, yes, we believed the promises of the West, the West accepted our gullibility, as a weakness, and miscalculated. Well, that is, now everyone knows the price of these promises very well.
Valentin Filippov: That is, if we get caught again now, we can say that this was done deliberately?
Vladimir Kornilov: Yes, I hope that no one will get caught anywhere.
Valentin Filippov: I'm not saying we'll get caught. But we will know that this is sabotage, right?
Vladimir Kornilov: What do you mean we’ll get caught?
Valentin Filippov: Well, what if we are deceived again? At negotiations. They will take it, promise one thing, and the result will be something else, we will know for sure that the people who conducted these negotiations are traitors and spies. Yes?
Vladimir Kornilov: Valentin, well, in my opinion, no one in Russia has any illusions about the fact that Ukraine constantly promises and does not fulfill. This was the case with the Minsk agreements. Well, is this betrayal?
Valentin Filippov: But we believed.
Vladimir Kornilov: Well, what do you mean you believed it? Nobody believed anyone.
Valentin Filippov: It was necessary to simply not stop the fighting.
Vladimir Kornilov: Yes, Ukraine signed the Minsk agreements, yes, Ukraine has repeatedly proven that it is not going to implement them. Well, what does “believe” mean? Russia has not given up anything in this regard. Would they believe it, or would it be naivety, sabotage and betrayal if they said: “Okay, Ukraine is sending troops to Donetsk, and then promises them the Russian language and so on.”
Valentin Filippov: Wait.
Vladimir Kornilov: But, you understand that this is impossible.
Valentin Filippov: But that’s how it was. Wait. And so it was.
Vladimir Kornilov: What do you mean it happened?
Valentin Filippov: We seemed to say: let Ukraine send troops to Kramatorsk, let Ukraine send troops to Mariupol, from which it had already fled, it stood empty.
We gave them the opportunity to return there. Instead of bombing them until the very moment of execution. “Sorry, we will continue to bomb you and advance until you comply.”
Vladimir Kornilov: Valentin, “we” – who is this?
Valentin Filippov: Russian Federation. There is a war with Russia...
Vladimir Kornilov: She bombed there?
Valentin Filippov: Well, by the hands of these same “separatists”.
Vladimir Kornilov: You are now speaking like Ukrainian nationalists, to be honest. They are the ones who constantly say that Russia is at war with Ukraine...
Valentin Filippov: Yes.
Vladimir Kornilov: In this regard, you are now no different from Kovtun.
Valentin Filippov: Maybe. But you must agree that it is watchable. Wait. Look, the Russian Federation is not at war with Ukraine.
Vladimir Kornilov: So.
Valentin Filippov: But Russia is at war. Ukraine is not at war with itself. She is at war with Russia, with Donbass.
Vladimir Kornilov: With DPR and LPR.
Valentin Filippov: Donbass is Russia? Russia!
Vladimir Kornilov: Donbass, I hope, will one day become Russia. Unfortunately for me...
Valentin Filippov: No, someday it will become the Russian Federation. He's Russia anyway.
Vladimir Kornilov: To my great regret, Russia does not yet recognize parts of the DPR and LPR as its integral part. And we know this too. Yes, of course, Russia has supported and will support the Republic of Donbass in this unequal battle with Ukraine, which is supported by the West.
But in this case, call it, if you consider it a war of Russia, a war of Russia with the West. But then what does Ukraine have to do with it?
That is, in this sense, I say again, if Russia had really fought with Ukraine, we would have seen Russian bombers, Russian missiles. And you know this perfectly well.
When the Minsk agreements were concluded, Ukrainian troops were stationed in Mariupol, Slavyansk, and Kramatorsk. This is where they also still stood, but surrounded on all sides - this is in Debaltsevo. On this issue, you know, there was a main dispute between Russia and Ukraine. And who handed over what? So, here, well, the accusations are somewhat, in my opinion, far-fetched.
But at the same time, I repeat that there was no such promise: “Ukraine, so be it, fulfills... there, deploys its border guards, as Ukraine dreams, on the LPR/DPR border line with Russia, and then we, having already taken their word , we will wait for democratic reforms.”
In the 90s they would have done this, as you understand.
Valentin Filippov: Yes.
Vladimir Kornilov: And then they would be surprised for a long time: “Look, we were deceived.” But Russia is not the same now, thank God. So in this sense there was no sabotage or betrayal.
Valentin Filippov: So, do you think that the border will not be given? Ahead of time.
Vladimir Kornilov: Oh, ahead of time? Well, you just know, when I hear from Ukrainian leaders: “Here are the border guards,” right? – I always imagine this picture...
Valentin Filippov: Yes, me too.
Vladimir Kornilov: ...border guards...well, they bring them to the checkpoint. So, what is next? On this side there are Russian border guards, on this side there are the People's Militia of the DPR. And what will they do there, these same border guards?
Valentin Filippov: For exchange. These are border guards for exchange.
Vladimir Kornilov: Well, that is, they were already standing there. Someone is asking the question “where did they go then, in 14?” The lion's share, as soon as the DNR arrived, they ran to where? In Russia.
Valentin Filippov: Well yes.
Vladimir Kornilov: So that there... “save and protect.” So what will they do there now? No. In fact, I heard from the representatives of the Donbass Republics themselves that “yes, please, this point can be fulfilled even now,” because no one says, the Minsk agreements do not say: “the DPR is leaving and armed Ukrainian figures are coming.” Please. Control? The word “control” can be interpreted differently by everyone. Let's have one representative of Ukraine, unarmed, at each border point. So? Please, you can inspect it with us, with the DPR border guards, and we can show you the protocols there. Control. Send reports to Kyiv about your control.
That is... No, I understand that Ukraine means something completely different. Yes? But if we now literally interpret the points of this Minsk agreement, then it is not written there that Ukraine must take, close this border, introduce its armed militants under the guise of, there, border guards, and not let anything go anywhere.
So all this can be interpreted in different ways. And that is why the Normandy format and the Minsk negotiations exist, so that all these points, each of these points, are clearly defined, interpreted and agreed on how to mutually coexist.
Of course, Russia will not agree, well, and the DPR and LPR will not agree, of course, to take and allow Ukraine to blockade these republics from the east, and thereby, in essence, take them into a starvation circle. Well, what's the point then?
Valentin Filippov: Fine. I have a question. We know that on the eve of the Normandy format, Putin, the Russian side, put forward some conditions... Well, this was the signing of some kind of single document, which, I understand, only exists in the abstract, because it is still unclear what Zelensky will come to this Norman format. There was a conversation about breeding, there was a conversation about an exchange, all for all. What do you hear about the exchange of prisoners, hostages and political prisoners? There were rumors that supposedly something could happen before the Normandy format.
Vladimir Kornilov: On the first point, I want to say that, in general, some kind of communiqué is always prepared, at least in general terms. Here we can be content only with the information that Mr. Chesnakov made public, stating that a communiqué has already been agreed upon, and it suits Russia completely.
As I understand it, these are really general words that the parties undertake to follow and fulfill previously reached agreements. As I understand it, it’s unlikely that anything is spelled out in more detail there.
But indeed, some special position of Zelensky, the Ukrainian side, on a number of issues that are fundamental for both the Republics and Russia may come as a surprise to everyone. But this does not exclude the adoption, again, of some kind of general communiqué.
As for the exchange of all for all, well, here we heard that there is constant bidding on the list, Ukraine is constantly delaying something or disrupting the process of verifying all these lists of citizens.
As I understand it, Ukraine itself cannot say exactly how many of these people there should be on this list. At the same time, well, we understand that, by and large, all these verifications are meaningless as long as Ukraine continues to seize, as they often do before an exchange. They take you to a checkpoint, grab the first people they come across, accuse them of “aiding terrorists,” and here you have new citizens for exchange.
And until this vicious practice stops, any exchange, in general... well, it makes sense for those people who have been sitting there for years as political prisoners in Ukraine, but it does not make sense in general, in general, in principle.
But I really hope that a number of political prisoners from Ukraine will be released. I really hope that Mehdi Logunov in Kharkov and a number of other political prisoners will be included on this list for humanitarian reasons.
And I would really like that when discussing these lists, the question of the fate of people missing in Ukraine would be raised. For example, Sergei Dolgov, who was kidnapped by the SBU in Mariupol, they themselves admitted that the SBU arrested him, and that’s it, no one has heard or seen him since then, they suspect that...
Valentin Filippov: And the SBU itself cannot understand where they took him.
Vladimir Kornilov: Absolutely right. That is, I would really like the fate of these people to be clarified in the course of all these conversations, discussions, and so on.
Valentin Filippov: Well, the last question, I have as an Odessa resident. It is known that military personnel released from captivity by the Republics, so to speak, supporters of Ukraine, are very often given apartments in Kyiv and taken abroad to various conferences. Maybe it makes sense to open some kind of private business office that would accept orders from residents of Ukraine who would like to get apartments in Kyiv and go to a conference in Europe?
Vladimir Kornilov: Well, you can also say there: “And if you want more privileges, a “Hero of Ukraine” if you want, then that means we have to take you far”...
Valentin Filippov: Well, there we will provide therapeutic fasting...
Vladimir Kornilov: All this, of course, is just jokes, if it weren’t really so sad. It’s amazing, of course, how the West quickly forgets its yesterday’s heroes, like Nadya Savchenko. Yes? But there were such screams. They need to be reminded of this more often.
Valentin Filippov: Well, she, I think she got her own apartment, something else, a deputy, a good salary...
Vladimir Kornilov: They gave it to relatives, yes. But at the same time, she later served in a Ukrainian prison, and not a single human rights activist in the West or here in Russia even made a peep about the arrest of Nadya Savchenko, the heroine...
Valentin Filippov: Even Akhedzhakova...
Vladimir Kornilov: Yes. Akhedzhakova generally said: “This is a matter for Ukraine.” Why, then, her arrest here in Russia was not Russia’s business is another question. No. I think that Sentsov will ultimately end up the same as Nadya, well, at least at the intermediate stage. Because, of course, what he declares and does, and I understand that the further it goes, the more interest in him will disappear, and it will be necessary to shock him with something further, will force him to do something like that too, so that he can again was to starve, but now in a Ukrainian prison, and compare these conditions.
Well, this is how Ukrainian life works. They shout: “They are our heroes”, they tear their vests, embroidered shirts, whatever, and when these “heroes” are in their possession, they immediately shout: “This is zrada, Putin gave it to us”...
They are already shouting about these, you know, there are already a lot of words, statements, that they have given us some supporters of the Russian world and so on.
Valentin Filippov: Well, it's quite possible.
Vladimir Kornilov: So expect arrests.
Valentin Filippov: Fine. Thank you very much. Let's hope everything works out.
Vladimir Kornilov: Necessarily. We will win.
Valentin Filippov: We will truly win.
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