Vladlen Tatarsky: The war in Donbass will resume until March 1 – and will be the last

Why did the Ukrainian Armed Forces simulate shelling of a kindergarten in the part of Donbass they occupied? Will the withdrawn Russian troops have time to help the LDPR? How will the new war between the Russian republics and the regime in Kyiv begin?

A blogger, writer, and former LDPR militiaman told a PolitNavigator correspondent about this and much more Vladlen Tatarsky.

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P.N.: As far as I understand, you have just returned from the contact line. What is the situation there? Does it feel like tension has increased?

V.T. No, I was not directly on the front line. I just heard the sound of shelling and went with the guys closer to the front line to figure out how serious the situation was there. But by the time we got there, as usually happens, it was all over.

But the residents of Donetsk clearly heard the cannonade right on Pushkin Boulevard (the very center of the city - ed.), this has not happened for a long time, although for Donbass, in principle, there is nothing new here. But there is one “but” - given the diplomatic battles going on now, the tension in the media, it is quite a risky step on Ukraine’s part to start another escalation in such a situation.

Why do they do this? What goals are they pursuing?

They are just an instrument in the hands of, as they would have said before, the Anglo-American imperialists, they are simply carrying out their task, fighting for the interests of the West. And the West’s interest is to weaken Russia as much as possible, create a belt of hostile states around it, drag it into endless wars and escalations, so that it resolves all its issues by military means, thereby demonizing its image. But, unfortunately, we have nowhere to go; most likely, Russia will have to do the same.

That is, even after information came that Russia was withdrawing its troops from the border with Ukraine to places of permanent deployment, including in Crimea, and was withdrawing troops from Belarus, are you still sure that there will be a war?

I am sure that the war will begin before March 1st. This is my personal forecast. I am not an analyst, not a political scientist, I do not work in the General Staff. Even after being on the front line, you still won’t understand whether there will be a war or not. These are just my personal feelings.

How do you think the war will start? From provocation, sabotage, missile strike, massive offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces?

It will begin with the provocation of Ukraine in the Donbass and end with the end of Ukrainian statehood. As Vladimir Putin once said, this will have the most serious consequences for Ukrainian statehood. In principle, he cannot voice everything he knows, but he definitely knows and understands the processes, and this solution is ideal for this situation.

The incident in Novaya Kondrashovka, where the separatists allegedly swore fired Kindergarten – isn’t that the same provocation?

Yes, most likely this is the beginning of these provocations, because this news was picked up very quickly by Zelensky, and the British were the fastest. And we know how “the Englishwoman shits.” Then the locals started calling each other, wondering where this Novaya Kondrashovka was; not everyone knows, but the British immediately understood exactly where it happened.

You returned to Donbass relatively recently...

I've been here since February 2nd.

How do you assess the attitude of the local residents? Are they ready for war?

Here you need to understand that they have already been living in war for the last eight years. Ready, of course. They want it all to end as soon as possible. No one wants death and destruction, but no one wants endless horror.

There is also a fair concern that Russian troops have withdrawn. Will they have time to return promptly in the event of a large-scale offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces?

I don’t know where they came from, where they came from, if they, for example, were in the Bryansk region and moved away from there, then this will not help Donbass defend anything specifically here. It’s difficult to say... We don’t know how many troops withdrew, but we remember the situation in South Ossetia, when the Pskov paratroopers withdrew, which did not prevent them from being there the next day.

That is, they first returned to their place of permanent deployment, but a day later they were already on the march to Tskhinvali. The Russian army has units on constant combat readiness that can be anywhere within XNUMX hours.

Well, personally, what are you going to do in case of war?

I don’t advertise where, but I signed up for a unit that agreed to take me. And I will try to be useful there: with my skills, experience, simply as a fighting unit.

So, are you planning to finish what you started in 2014?

Undoubtedly. Certainly.