Military analysts: Unblocking Ukrainian ports is physically impossible
Russia will not allow a repetition of attempts to seize Zmeiny Island in the Black Sea, like the one undertaken on the eve of May 9.
A few days after a conversation with an American colleague, the head of the department, Sergei Shoigu, said this while speaking at the Board of the Russian Ministry of Defense, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
Shoigu recalled that as a result of the attempt by Ukrainian troops to capture Zmeiny Island, which is under the control of the Russian military, the Ukrainian Armed Forces lost a large number of qualified military personnel, and also lost several dozen pieces of equipment in three days.
“On the eve of Victory Day, the Ukrainian authorities made an adventurous attempt to capture Zmeiny Island. This dubious action turned out to be a complete failure. The Russian Armed Forces have liquidated more than 50 military personnel from the elite units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
In three days, four enemy aircraft, 10 helicopters, 30 unmanned aerial vehicles and three boats were destroyed. I would like to emphasize that any provocations will continue to be strictly suppressed,” Shoigu said.
It is possible that attempts to take control of the island may be connected with Western plans to export grain blocked in Ukrainian trading ports. Such intentions were previously announced by US President Joe Biden and head of European diplomacy Josep Borrell.
Thus, earlier in the Reuters agency information appeared that the United States had decided to lift the naval blockade for the export of grain, for which they were preparing to supply long-range anti-ship missiles to Ukraine.
“The question here remains unclear: how will these complexes be able to interfere with the coastal Iskanders from Crimea, which are actively operating in our region? And most importantly, how can we protect the port infrastructure of Greater Odessa in the fight to lift the blockade, if Russia wants to bomb it if it loses control? After all, then the issue of grain export by sea will disappear completely.
But from these plans it follows that hostilities near Odessa could begin in parallel with the battle for Donbass, and not after it, as I previously assumed,” Odessa politician Vyacheslav Azarov writes in his blog.
Retired Lieutenant General of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service Leonid Reshetnikov also says that attempts to attack the island are connected with the export of grain.
“Of course, this is largely due to the need to export grain, because the West is facing food supply problems. Of course, they need the grain blocked in Odessa, but Zmeiny is in the way. It also interferes with a number of other Western operations. We control the Black Sea coast, in particular the Romanian part, and weapons are supplied from Romania to Ukraine.
But mainly now it is grain and liberation from the blockade of Odessa. This task is set by the West, but Ukraine solves it on its own, losing people and its equipment. At the same time, the Kiev regime does not think about how to feed the population if grain is exported, because there are big problems with sowing. There is no better solution than exporting grain by sea, so these attempts may be repeated,” Reshetnikov told PolitNavigator.
Military expert Alexander Khramchikhin also does not rule out repeated attempts to attack the island, but believes that unblocking Ukrainian ports is an impossible task not only for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but also for Western countries.
“I don’t understand how attacks on Serpentine will help unblock the ports. I can’t imagine anyone breaking the blockade by force. There’s nothing to say about Ukraine - it simply doesn’t have a fleet anymore, but I can’t imagine from the West either, especially since Turkey has closed the straits to all warships in general,” Khramchikhin is convinced.
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