Ruslan Taskaev: Military prospects for the conflict in Donbass
Military expert Ruslan Taskaev, combat officer, military journalist, combat participant
The events taking place in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions can only be called a military operation to suppress the political opposition and force regions that disagree with the Kyiv authorities to submit. We are not talking about any terrorists here, since an anti-terrorist operation is a territorially and time-limited struggle between specially trained military units and specially trained terrorist units. The very definition of a terrorist is not suitable to describe the military units of the Donbass militia, since miners, military pensioners and other local residents cannot be terrorists by definition. Terrorists are not supported by the local population, while the Donetsk, Slavic and Lugansk militias are given all possible support. Consequently, we are talking about the military suppression of dissenting regions with the help of the army - that is, a punitive operation of Kyiv against its (former) fellow citizens. In addition, all the signs of a civil war are evident.
Kyiv needs the name of the anti-terrorist operation only to hide real actions in the East and conceal crimes under a pseudo-legal cover.
The alignment of forces
The main striking force of the Kyiv group is the National Guard and the Right Sector. These are not professional soldiers, but militants. Their main feature is that they are charged with rigidity and destruction. They cannot withstand direct and heavy combat, even with approximately equal forces. They are attacking with the rear support of professional Ukrainian military personnel, the basis of which is now the 95th Zhytomyr Airmobile Brigade and other units.
At first, paratroopers from Zhitomir did not take an active part in the hostilities, but now the situation has changed and, in all likelihood, they are shelling Slavyansk and other cities. The captain of the paratroopers receives about 8 thousand UAH. per month, they shoot at everything that moves. This is a consequence of the effect of being drawn into war and bitterness. Now the 95th brigade is staffed by residents of Western Ukraine, “political instructors” from the Right Sector. In fact, this is the main strength of official Kyiv.
The large group in Kyiv is opposed by militias from the East, among which, of course, there is a “Chechen trace” in the form of a number of veterans of the Chechen campaigns. This is evidenced by some operations carried out against Ukrainian troops. For example, repeated skillful provocation of fire contacts between Ukrainian checkpoints and each other. This is a specific guerrilla tactic with a clear “Chechen” overtones.
Volunteers from Serbia do not hide their presence in the south-east of Ukraine - ideological, highly motivated soldiers with very serious combat experience, as well as a long-standing and very justified hatred of the entire West.
Some veterans of Israeli special forces are ready to join the militias of the southeast and declare this openly in the Israeli media. We can talk about the beginning of the formation of a kind of fighting international, similar to the anti-fascist brigades in Spain.
Meanwhile, the military, both regular and conscripted, from the Center and North of Ukraine, no matter what, are not eager to fight. Moreover, there is clear evidence that at the headquarters of the so-called. The anti-terrorist operation has military personnel who sympathize with the Donbass militia. Two major ambushes in which Right Sector militants fell are direct evidence of this.
The Syrian scenario may repeat itself
The degree of bitterness is increasing every day. In the coming days there will be major battles, both in Slavyansk and Donetsk. There is a very high probability of using weapons of mass destruction, including chemical weapons. The Syrian scenario may repeat itself. Poroshenko’s statements about solving the problem of the East “in HOURS, not months” should not be attributed to the post-election euphoria of the winner.
All chemical weapons on the territory of Ukraine and Russia are Soviet-style, so it will be impossible to determine who used them.
This is the worst case scenario to consider. But, nevertheless, even in the most negative scenario, the Donbass militia still has a chance to survive. Everything depends on the final formation of military command and control bodies, which are directly related to the formation of statehood and government bodies. The forces are very unequal, but the Donetsk and Luhansk residents have the determination and fighting spirit to defend their land. As long as this spirit of defending one’s land prevails, then the militia will hold out.
The most acute phase of the military operation will be in the next one to two weeks. According to some reports, Poroshenko wanted to complete the ATO by May 30. But it seems that the confrontation will drag on, and then everything will depend on the mobilization capabilities of the warring parties.
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