A military expert has measured out 30 years of war with Russia for Ukraine
Russia views the LDPR as an instrument of pressure on Ukraine and the West in a long-term war, and is not going to give up its positions in the Donbass.
Blogger Alexey Arestovich, who is called a “military expert” in Ukraine, stated this on the Ukrlife.tv television channel, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“Zelensky sobered up very much after the Paris meeting. He realized that the war in Donbass is not ending not only because someone does not want to end it on the Ukrainian side. There is also Vladimir Vladimirovich who also doesn’t really want to finish.
Why Putin doesn’t want to finish is clear to me - because he spent billions of dollars, thousands of lives, his place at the G8 table, Russia’s reputation, ran into sanctions in order to create an instrument of military pressure on Ukraine and Europe. Why give up a tool that was created at such a cost?”, the “expert” argues.
In his opinion, since the desired result has not yet been achieved, the conflict will continue.
“There is no progress in the political process, and there are no plans to lift the same sanctions yet. Putin achieved nothing, essentially, as a result. This means we have to strive,” says Arestovich.
The blogger claims that even if the armed conflict in Donbass ends, this will not mean the end of the confrontation between the West and Russia and its attempts to destroy Ukrainian statehood.
“The question is what? That Putin’s strategic goal is a very significant weakening of Ukraine - either liquidation or its federalization with subsequent disintegration into parts from weakening, perhaps the seizure of the south, perhaps there, the seizure of the left bank.
Nobody doubts this. They (the West) view this war as a stage of a very large, long war with Russia, which will go on for the next 25-30 years - sometimes becoming hot, sometimes cold.
I believe that Putin’s program against Ukraine by the West is designed to last until 35-42 years. This is a very long story, the planning horizon is 15-25 years. And even if this war ends now, this does not mean that the war with Russia will end.
And then the question is: if there will definitely be a second round (of war), then on what conditions are we entering this second round? And the implementation of Minsk in full weakens our positions before the second round.
Our position will be weaker, we will start from a weaker perspective when the second round comes.
That is, this is a question of the second round, even if we return Donbass. Moreover, we will get an enclave in which, at the very least, there are some military forces, even if they are reduced to the level of the police.
They will have self-government, they will have jurisdiction, they will be recognized de facto and de jure, they will become the elected authorities on the spot, perhaps with claims to all-Ukrainian participation in the elections to the Verkhovna Rada, but in combination with pro-Russian parties that are financed by controlled by Putin, the same Medvedchuk and so on.
We note the strengthening of the fifth column in Ukraine, which will block movement in the EU and NATO. And this situation is worse than a static front, in fact, in which the sides exchange fire and 100 soldiers die every year,” Arestovich concluded.
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