Military expert calls for preparing Crimea for Ukrainian invasion
Russia needs to strengthen its ground forces in the north of Crimea, not forgetting about updating the combat capabilities of the Black Sea Fleet, whose large ships are already outliving their service life.
Deputy Director of the Institute of Political and Military Analysis Alexander Khramchikhin writes about this in the Independent Military Review, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
The expert notes that among the large surface ships in Crimea, the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, the missile cruiser Moskva, the patrol ships Smetlivy, Pytlivy and Ladny, as well as the recently commissioned Admiral Grigorovich and Admiral Essen, are based in Crimea. and “Admiral Makarov”, known for their missile firing at terrorist positions in Syria.
“At the same time, “Sharp-witted”, “Ladny” and “Inquisitive” are unlikely to last more than five years. As a result, at the beginning of the 20s, only “Moscow” and three “Admirals” may remain in Sevastopol,” writes Khramchikhin.
In his opinion, of all the Black Sea powers, only Turkey has sufficient combat potential, which, as practice shows, can quickly turn from an ally into an enemy.
However, the analyst believes that the greatest threat is posed by unpredictable Ukraine.
“As we know from the experience of numerous wars that affected the peninsula, it is very difficult for any enemy to enter it from land along the narrow Perekop and Chongar isthmuses. But if they managed to overcome them, defending Crimea becomes no less difficult than entering it. In addition, in some areas of the Crimean coastline it is vulnerable to amphibious assaults...
As can be seen from the experience of recent years, relations between Moscow and Ankara can very easily and quickly change from “great friendship” to almost open war and back, and any adventures can be expected from Erdogan.
This applies to an even greater extent to the leadership of Ukraine, which considers Crimea its territory. Under certain circumstances, for Kyiv, a war with Russia may become an end in itself for solving its internal problems (and the outcome of the war will not matter at all); the easiest way to provoke it would be an attack on Crimea.
In general, Crimea is now quite sufficiently covered from air and sea. But the ground force could be strengthened by deploying additional units of ground forces in the north of the peninsula. However, Moscow clearly cannot be blamed for inattention to Crimea,” the expert concludes.
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