The war in Ukraine is salvation for the Kremlin, - report
Moscow – Kyiv, March 31 (PolitNavigator, Mikhail Stamm) – The political situation in Russia will be determined by events in Ukraine: if the conflict continues, the government’s rating remains high, if not, it falls. This conclusion was reached by the authors of the report “Between Crimea and the Crisis”, prepared for the Committee of Civil Initiatives (CI), which is headed by former head of the Ministry of Finance Alexei Kudrin. The study was conducted by a group of experts led by the former head of the Center for Strategic Research, Mikhail Dmitriev, reports Kommersant.
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If events develop according to the first option, “the final cessation of hostilities will weaken the relevance of external threat factors and increase the likelihood of a gradual lifting of economic sanctions.” In this case, the “factor of protective patriotism” will play a secondary role, and its influence on the government’s ratings will also weaken.
The second scenario assumes “the persistence of an external threat, combined with a lower level of economic sentiment in an economic crisis, will support the transfer of aggression to an external enemy, an attitude towards current consumption and minimizing risks,” the authors write.
Mikhail Dmitriev is known as the author of many predictions that have come true. In March 2011, he noted the onset of a deep political crisis, a drop in support for Vladimir Putin, Dmitry Medvedev and United Russia, and predicted increased dissatisfaction with the political system in society. This was followed by mass protests in Moscow in 2011–1012.
In December 2014, during a lull in the Donbass, Mikhail Dmitriev’s research documented new sentiments in society: the population no longer approved of political protests, but could support a new wave of economic protests and stopped believing official media reports about the situation inside the country. At the same time, distrust in systemic parties and skepticism about Russia’s foreign policy successes are growing.
In March 2015, a year after the start of the war, a Levada Center study showed that 86% of Russians approved of Vladimir Putin’s performance as president of Russia; the president’s rating continues to remain at a record high. Experts noted that social aggression against officials and migrants has switched to an external enemy.
However, a negative attitude towards officials and migrants remains, and as economic problems intensify, these two groups will again become the main target of protest sentiments, Kudrin believes.
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